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Mingəçevir vs Zaqatala Prediction— Azerbaijan - Birinci Dasta

Matchday 1 ·Friday, September 4, 2026, 13:00

Mingəçevir

PPG 1.87 · HOME

UPCOMING

Zaqatala

PPG 1.08 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 55.9% vs bookmaker-implied 55.6% — a real, if thin, edge.

+0.6% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-06.3%0-17.5%0-24.4%0-31.7%0-4+0.7%1 1-09.9%1-111.8%1-27.0%1-32.8%1-4+1.1%2 2-07.9%2-19.3%2-25.5%2-32.2%2-4+0.8%3 3-04.1%3-14.9%3-22.9%3-31.1%3-4+0.4%4+ 4+-02.3%4+-12.8%4+-21.6%4+-30.6%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 46.5% 73.5% 1.36 -36.8%

Draw 24.2% 22.2% 4.50 +5.3%

Away win 29.3% 16.0% 6.25 +49.9%

Over 2.5 53.8% 61.7% 1.62 -12.8%

Over 3.5 31.7% 43.1% 2.32 -26.5%

BTTS 55.9% 55.6% 1.80 +0.6%

Home O1.5 47.2% 71.4% 1.40 -33.9%

Away O1.5 34.0% 22.2% 4.50 +53.0%

League track record ↗

Based on 28 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 54%

O2.5 57%

BTTS 50%

Score Hit 39%

ROI -16.4%

Bet Hit 57%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 35%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.6 xG (away)1.2 BTTS prob55.9%

H 46% / xG 1.6-1.2 / O2.5 54% / BTTS 56%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.8%

#2 2–1 9.3%

#3 1–0 9.9%

#4 2–0 7.9%

#5 1–2 7.0%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Mingəçevir1.6

Zaqatala1.2

COMBINED 2.8 xG → O2.5 PROB 53.8% · O3.5 PROB 31.7%

Form & verdict PPG

MINGƏÇEVIR · PPG 1.87

ZAQATALA · PPG 1.08

✓ INTERESTING - Balanced match with high-value opportunity

70%

BALANCED

xG gap +0.39 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Mingəçevir (H) 46.5%

ODDS 1.36 · IMPLIED 73.5% EV -36.8%

Draw 24.2%

ODDS 4.50 · IMPLIED 22.2% EV +5.3%

Zaqatala (A) 29.3%

ODDS 6.25 · IMPLIED 16.0% EV +49.9%

Match Preview & Prediction

Mingəçevir face Zaqatala in Azerbaijan - Birinci Dasta on Friday, September 4, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Mingəçevir a 47% chance, the draw 24% and Zaqatala 29%, so Mingəçevir are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.6 for Mingəçevir and 1.2 for Zaqatala (2.8 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 54% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 56% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Mingəçevir are averaging 1.87 points per game versus 1.08 for Zaqatala. The best value bet our model finds is A/O25, with an expected value of +91.2%.

Mingəçevir vs Zaqatala Prediction— Azerbaijan - Birinci Dasta

Match Preview & Prediction

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