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Santo Domingo vs Cumbayá Prediction— Ecuador - Liga Pro Serie B

Relegation Group · Matchday 2 ·Friday, September 4, 2026, 00:00

Santo Domingo

PPG 1.82 · HOME

UPCOMING

Cumbayá

PPG 0.91 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home

Model probability 51.6% vs bookmaker-implied 44.4% — a clear edge.

+16.1% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-018.6%0-19.3%0-22.3%0-30.4%0-4+0.1%1 1-022.0%1-111.0%1-22.7%1-30.5%1-4+0.1%2 2-013.0%2-16.5%2-21.6%2-30.3%2-4+0.0%3 3-05.1%3-12.6%3-20.6%3-30.1%3-4+0.0%4+ 4+-02.0%4+-11.0%4+-20.2%4+-30.0%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 51.6% 44.4% 2.25 +16.1%

Draw 27.3% 35.7% 2.80 -14.1%

Away win 21.1% 32.3% 3.10 -20.8%

Over 2.5 38.8% 40.0% 2.50 -3.0%

Over 3.5 20.8% 22.0% 4.55 -3.2%

BTTS 42.4% 50.0% 2.00 -15.2%

Home O1.5 33.0% 39.4% 2.54 -16.2%

Away O1.5 14.0% 28.6% 3.50 -30.6%

League track record ↗

Based on 36 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 33%

O2.5 53%

BTTS 75%

Score Hit 67%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 43%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.2 xG (away)0.5 BTTS prob42.4%

H 52% / xG 1.2-0.5 / U2.5 39% / NoBTTS 42%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–0 22.0%

#2 0–0 18.6%

#3 2–0 13.0%

#4 0–1 9.3%

#5 1–1 11.0%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Santo Domingo1.2

Cumbayá0.5

COMBINED 1.7 xG → O2.5 PROB 38.8% · O3.5 PROB 20.8%

Form & verdict PPG

SANTO DOMINGO · PPG 1.82

CUMBAYÁ · PPG 0.91

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.69 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Santo Domingo (H) 51.6%

ODDS 2.25 · IMPLIED 44.4% EV +16.1%

Draw 27.3%

ODDS 2.80 · IMPLIED 35.7% EV -14.1%

Cumbayá (A) 21.1%

ODDS 3.10 · IMPLIED 32.3% EV -20.8%

Match Preview & Prediction

Santo Domingo face Cumbayá in Ecuador - Liga Pro Serie B on Friday, September 4, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Santo Domingo a 52% chance, the draw 27% and Cumbayá 21%, so Santo Domingo are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.2 for Santo Domingo and 0.5 for Cumbayá (1.7 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-0. There is a 39% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 42% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Santo Domingo are averaging 1.82 points per game versus 0.91 for Cumbayá. The best value bet our model finds is H/O25, with an expected value of +2.1%.

Santo Domingo vs Cumbayá Prediction— Ecuador - Liga Pro Serie B

Match Preview & Prediction

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