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Sunderland vs Nottm Forest Prediction— England - Premier League

Matchday 34 ·Friday, April 24, 2026, 19:00

Sunderland

PPG 1.81 · HOME

LAST 5

WWLLW

0 – 5

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · HOME

Nottm Forest

PPG 1.13 · AWAY

LAST 5

WWDLD

// Model verdict

Home 42% chance

Model probability 52.1% vs bookmaker-implied 37.9% — a clear edge.

+37.5% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-010.8%0-18.6%0-23.4%0-30.9%0-4+0.2%1 1-015.4%1-112.3%1-24.9%1-31.3%1-4+0.3%2 2-011.1%2-18.8%2-23.5%2-30.9%2-4+0.2%3 3-05.3%3-14.2%3-21.7%3-30.4%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-02.6%4+-12.1%4+-20.8%4+-30.2%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 52.1% 37.9% 2.64 +37.5%

Draw 27.0% 31.3% 3.20 -13.6%

Away win 20.8% 37.9% 2.64 -45.1%

Over 2.5 38.5% 47.6% 2.10 -19.1%

Over 3.5 18.6% 26.0% 3.85 -28.4%

BTTS 41.8% 54.6% 1.83 -23.5%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 73 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 48%

O2.5 45%

BTTS 56%

Score Hit 43%

ROI -9.4%

Bet Hit 55%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 47%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-5

xG (home)1.4 xG (away)0.8 BTTS prob41.8%

H 52% / xG 1.4-0.8 / U2.5 38% / NoBTTS 42%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–0 15.4%

#2 1–1 12.3%

#3 2–0 11.1%

#4 0–0 10.8%

#5 2–1 8.8%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Sunderland1.4

Nottm Forest0.8

COMBINED 2.2 xG → O2.5 PROB 38.5% · O3.5 PROB 18.6%

Form & verdict PPG

SUNDERLAND · PPG 1.81

NOTTM FOREST · PPG 1.13

✓ SOLID - Moderate edge + strong value

Chance this pick lands

42%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: GOOD (1.81) > Away AVERAGE (1.13)

Win probability 1X2

Sunderland (H) 52.1%

ODDS 2.64 · IMPLIED 37.9% EV +37.5%

Draw 27.0%

ODDS 3.20 · IMPLIED 31.3% EV -13.6%

Nottm Forest (A) 20.8%

ODDS 2.64 · IMPLIED 37.9% EV -45.1%

Match Preview & Prediction

Sunderland face Nottm Forest in England - Premier League on Friday, April 24, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Sunderland a 52% chance, the draw 27% and Nottm Forest 21%, so Sunderland are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.4 for Sunderland and 0.8 for Nottm Forest (2.2 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-0. There is a 39% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 42% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Sunderland are averaging 1.81 points per game versus 1.13 for Nottm Forest. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +37.5%. This match finished 0-5.

Sunderland vs Nottm Forest Prediction— England - Premier League

Match Preview & Prediction

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