Today / France - Ligue 3 / Fleury 91 vs Orleans

Fleury 91 vs Orleans Prediction— France - Ligue 3

Matchday 3 ·Thursday, August 20, 2026, 18:45

Fleury 91

PPG 1.55 · HOME

LAST 5

DDLL ·

0 – 2

FULL TIME

Orleans

PPG 1.78 · AWAY

LAST 5

WLWL ·

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-011.4%0-110.8%0-25.1%0-31.6%0-4+0.5%1 1-014.0%1-113.2%1-26.2%1-32.0%1-4+0.6%2 2-08.6%2-18.1%2-23.8%2-31.2%2-4+0.4%3 3-03.5%3-13.3%3-21.6%3-30.5%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-01.4%4+-11.3%4+-20.6%4+-30.2%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 40.7% 44.4% 2.25 -8.4%

Draw 31.1% 30.8% 3.25 +1.1%

Away win 28.2% 35.1% 2.85 -11.8%

Over 2.5 42.7% 55.6% 1.80 -23.1%

Over 3.5 20.6% 33.3% 3.00 -22.9%

BTTS 47.6% 61.7% 1.62 -22.9%

Home O1.5 33.3% 47.6% 2.10 -30.1%

Away O1.5 25.7% 40.8% 2.45 -22.2%

League track record ↗

Based on 9 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 56%

O2.5 11%

BTTS 22%

Score Hit 44%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 29%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-2

xG (home)1.2 xG (away)0.9 BTTS prob47.6%

H 41% / xG 1.2-0.9 / U2.5 43% / NoBTTS 48%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 13.2%

#2 0–0 11.4%

#3 1–0 14.0%

#4 0–1 10.8%

#5 2–0 8.6%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Fleury 911.2

Orleans0.9

COMBINED 2.2 xG → O2.5 PROB 42.7% · O3.5 PROB 20.6%

Form & verdict PPG

FLEURY 91 · PPG 1.55

ORLEANS · PPG 1.78

⚖ HIGH DRAW RISK - evenly matched, low-scoring expected | No clear value

65%

HIGH_DRAW_RISK

xG gap +0.28, combined xG 2.17 - evenly matched, low-scoring, elevated Draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Fleury 91 (H) 40.7%

ODDS 2.25 · IMPLIED 44.4% EV -8.4%

Draw 31.1%

ODDS 3.25 · IMPLIED 30.8% EV +1.1%

Orleans (A) 28.2%

ODDS 2.85 · IMPLIED 35.1% EV -11.8%

Match Preview & Prediction

Fleury 91 face Orleans in France - Ligue 3 on Thursday, August 20, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Fleury 91 a 41% chance, the draw 31% and Orleans 28%, so Fleury 91 are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.2 for Fleury 91 and 0.9 for Orleans (2.2 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 43% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 48% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Fleury 91 are averaging 1.55 points per game versus 1.78 for Orleans. This match finished 0-2.

Fleury 91 vs Orleans Prediction— France - Ligue 3

Match Preview & Prediction

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