Today / France - Ligue 3 / Rouen vs Quevilly

Rouen vs Quevilly Prediction— France - Ligue 3

Matchday 3 ·Thursday, August 20, 2026, 18:45

Rouen

PPG 1.58 · HOME

LAST 5

DWWW ·

3 – 0

FULL TIME

Quevilly

PPG 0.98 · AWAY

LAST 5

LDLW ·

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-012.7%0-19.0%0-23.2%0-30.8%0-4+0.2%1 1-017.2%1-112.2%1-24.3%1-31.0%1-4+0.2%2 2-011.6%2-18.3%2-22.9%2-30.7%2-4+0.1%3 3-05.3%3-13.7%3-21.3%3-30.3%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-02.4%4+-11.7%4+-20.6%4+-30.1%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 49.1% 57.8% 1.73 -15.1%

Draw 28.7% 29.9% 3.35 -2.3%

Away win 22.1% 22.2% 4.50 -0.3%

Over 2.5 38.7% 48.8% 2.05 -20.7%

Over 3.5 20.6% 26.7% 3.75 -13.7%

BTTS 43.6% 52.4% 1.91 -16.7%

Home O1.5 37.8% 51.8% 1.93 -27.1%

Away O1.5 17.9% 26.0% 3.85 -18.6%

League track record ↗

Based on 9 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 56%

O2.5 11%

BTTS 22%

Score Hit 44%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 44%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 3-0

xG (home)1.4 xG (away)0.7 BTTS prob43.6%

H 49% / xG 1.4-0.7 / U2.5 39% / NoBTTS 44%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–0 17.2%

#2 0–0 12.7%

#3 1–1 12.2%

#4 2–0 11.6%

#5 0–1 9.0%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Rouen1.4

Quevilly0.7

COMBINED 2.1 xG → O2.5 PROB 38.7% · O3.5 PROB 20.6%

Form & verdict PPG

ROUEN · PPG 1.58

QUEVILLY · PPG 0.98

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

52%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.65 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Rouen (H) 49.1%

ODDS 1.73 · IMPLIED 57.8% EV -15.1%

Draw 28.7%

ODDS 3.35 · IMPLIED 29.9% EV -2.3%

Quevilly (A) 22.1%

ODDS 4.50 · IMPLIED 22.2% EV -0.3%

Match Preview & Prediction

Rouen face Quevilly in France - Ligue 3 on Thursday, August 20, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Rouen a 49% chance, the draw 29% and Quevilly 22%, so Rouen are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.4 for Rouen and 0.7 for Quevilly (2.1 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-0. There is a 39% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 44% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Rouen are averaging 1.58 points per game versus 0.98 for Quevilly. The best value bet our model finds is BTTS/O25, with an expected value of +0.2%. This match finished 3-0.

Rouen vs Quevilly Prediction— France - Ligue 3

Match Preview & Prediction

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