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Gobelins vs Valenciennes Prediction— France - Ligue 3

Matchday 3 ·Thursday, August 20, 2026, 18:45

Gobelins

PPG 1.65 · HOME

LAST 5

WLWD ·

2 – 1

FULL TIME

Valenciennes

PPG 0.95 · AWAY

LAST 5

LWLD ·

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-010.4%0-19.9%0-24.7%0-31.5%0-4+0.4%1 1-013.7%1-113.0%1-26.1%1-31.9%1-4+0.6%2 2-09.0%2-18.5%2-24.0%2-31.3%2-4+0.4%3 3-04.0%3-13.7%3-21.8%3-30.6%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-01.7%4+-11.6%4+-20.8%4+-30.2%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 45.2% 29.4% 3.40 +53.7%

Draw 27.8% 32.3% 3.10 -8.3%

Away win 27.0% 48.8% 2.05 -26.8%

Over 2.5 44.8% 47.6% 2.10 -5.9%

Over 3.5 25.6% 26.7% 3.75 -2.4%

BTTS 49.1% 55.6% 1.80 -11.6%

Home O1.5 37.8% 32.3% 3.10 +17.2%

Away O1.5 25.7% 46.5% 2.15 -26.9%

League track record ↗

Based on 9 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 56%

O2.5 11%

BTTS 22%

Score Hit 44%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 28%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-1

xG (home)1.3 xG (away)0.9 BTTS prob49.1%

H 45% / xG 1.3-0.9 / U2.5 45% / NoBTTS 49%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 13.0%

#2 1–0 13.7%

#3 0–0 10.4%

#4 2–0 9.0%

#5 2–1✓ 8.5%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Gobelins1.3

Valenciennes0.9

COMBINED 2.3 xG → O2.5 PROB 44.8% · O3.5 PROB 25.6%

Form & verdict PPG

GOBELINS · PPG 1.65

VALENCIENNES · PPG 0.95

⚖ HIGH DRAW RISK - evenly matched, low-scoring expected

65%

HIGH_DRAW_RISK

xG gap +0.37, combined xG 2.26 - evenly matched, low-scoring, elevated Draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Gobelins (H) 45.2%

ODDS 3.40 · IMPLIED 29.4% EV +53.7%

Draw 27.8%

ODDS 3.10 · IMPLIED 32.3% EV -8.3%

Valenciennes (A) 27.0%

ODDS 2.05 · IMPLIED 48.8% EV -26.8%

Match Preview & Prediction

Gobelins face Valenciennes in France - Ligue 3 on Thursday, August 20, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Gobelins a 45% chance, the draw 28% and Valenciennes 27%, so Gobelins are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.3 for Gobelins and 0.9 for Valenciennes (2.3 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 45% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 49% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Gobelins are averaging 1.65 points per game versus 0.95 for Valenciennes. The best value bet our model finds is H/O25, with an expected value of +28.9%. This match finished 2-1.

Gobelins vs Valenciennes Prediction— France - Ligue 3

Match Preview & Prediction

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