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Concarneau vs Villefranche Prediction— France - Ligue 3

Matchday 3 ·Thursday, August 20, 2026, 18:45

Concarneau

PPG 1.08 · HOME

LAST 5

LDWD ·

2 – 0

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · BTTS

Villefranche

PPG 0.81 · AWAY

LAST 5

LWLL ·

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 53.0% vs bookmaker-implied 57.8%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-08.3%0-110.2%0-26.2%0-32.5%0-4+1.0%1 1-010.5%1-112.9%1-27.9%1-33.2%1-4+1.3%2 2-06.7%2-18.1%2-25.0%2-32.0%2-4+0.8%3 3-02.8%3-13.4%3-22.1%3-30.8%3-4+0.3%4+ 4+-01.2%4+-11.4%4+-20.9%4+-30.4%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 36.2% 52.6% 1.90 -31.2%

Draw 27.4% 30.3% 3.30 -5.8%

Away win 36.3% 27.0% 3.70 +34.3%

Over 2.5 50.1% 51.8% 1.93 -3.3%

Over 3.5 28.2% 30.3% 3.30 -4.2%

BTTS 53.0% 57.8% 1.73 -8.3%

Home O1.5 37.8% 51.3% 1.95 -26.3%

Away O1.5 37.3% 33.3% 3.00 +11.9%

League track record ↗

Based on 9 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 56%

O2.5 11%

BTTS 22%

Score Hit 44%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 2 19%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-0

xG (home)1.3 xG (away)1.2 BTTS prob53.0%

A 36% / xG 1.3-1.2 / O2.5 50% / BTTS 53%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.9%

#2 0–0 8.3%

#3 0–1 10.2%

#4 1–0 10.5%

#5 1–2 7.9%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Concarneau1.3

Villefranche1.2

COMBINED 2.5 xG → O2.5 PROB 50.1% · O3.5 PROB 28.2%

Form & verdict PPG

CONCARNEAU · PPG 1.08

VILLEFRANCHE · PPG 0.81

⚖ HIGH DRAW RISK - evenly matched, low-scoring expected

65%

HIGH_DRAW_RISK

xG gap +0.04, combined xG 2.48 - evenly matched, low-scoring, elevated Draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Concarneau (H) 36.2%

ODDS 1.90 · IMPLIED 52.6% EV -31.2%

Draw 27.4%

ODDS 3.30 · IMPLIED 30.3% EV -5.8%

Villefranche (A) 36.3%

ODDS 3.70 · IMPLIED 27.0% EV +34.3%

Match Preview & Prediction

Concarneau face Villefranche in France - Ligue 3 on Thursday, August 20, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Concarneau a 36% chance, the draw 27% and Villefranche 36%, so Villefranche are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.3 for Concarneau and 1.2 for Villefranche (2.5 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 50% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 53% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Concarneau are averaging 1.08 points per game versus 0.81 for Villefranche. The best value bet our model finds is A/O25, with an expected value of +22.7%. This match finished 2-0.

Concarneau vs Villefranche Prediction— France - Ligue 3

Match Preview & Prediction

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