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Fatih Karagümrük vs Kayserispor Prediction— Turkey - 1. Lig

Matchday 5 ·Wednesday, September 2, 2026, 17:00

Fatih Karagümrük

PPG 1.93 · HOME

LAST 5

LWWD ·

UPCOMING

Kayserispor

PPG 1.93 · AWAY

LAST 5

WWWL ·

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 52.9% vs bookmaker-implied 58.8%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-09.0%0-19.8%0-25.4%0-32.0%0-4+0.7%1 1-011.8%1-112.9%1-27.1%1-32.6%1-4+0.9%2 2-07.8%2-18.5%2-24.7%2-31.7%2-4+0.6%3 3-03.4%3-13.7%3-22.0%3-30.7%3-4+0.3%4+ 4+-01.5%4+-11.6%4+-20.9%4+-30.3%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 43.1% 42.6% 2.35 +1.3%

Draw 27.0% 30.3% 3.30 -6.5%

Away win 29.9% 37.0% 2.70 -11.6%

Over 2.5 50.4% 51.8% 1.93 -2.7%

Over 3.5 28.7% 29.9% 3.35 -2.3%

BTTS 52.9% 58.8% 1.70 -10.1%

Home O1.5 38.4% 44.4% 2.25 -13.6%

Away O1.5 33.2% 40.0% 2.50 -17.0%

League track record ↗

Based on 35 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 46%

O2.5 49%

BTTS 51%

Score Hit 49%

ROI -50.8%

Bet Hit 33%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 20%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.3 xG (away)1.1 BTTS prob52.9%

H 43% / xG 1.3-1.1 / O2.5 50% / BTTS 53%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.9%

#2 1–0 11.8%

#3 0–0 9.0%

#4 2–1 8.5%

#5 2–0 7.8%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Fatih Karagümrük1.3

Kayserispor1.1

COMBINED 2.4 xG → O2.5 PROB 50.4% · O3.5 PROB 28.7%

Form & verdict PPG

FATIH KARAGÜMRÜK · PPG 1.93

KAYSERISPOR · PPG 1.93

⚖ HIGH DRAW RISK - evenly matched, low-scoring expected | No clear value

65%

HIGH_DRAW_RISK

xG gap +0.22, combined xG 2.41 - evenly matched, low-scoring, elevated Draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Fatih Karagümrük (H) 43.1%

ODDS 2.35 · IMPLIED 42.6% EV +1.3%

Draw 27.0%

ODDS 3.30 · IMPLIED 30.3% EV -6.5%

Kayserispor (A) 29.9%

ODDS 2.70 · IMPLIED 37.0% EV -11.6%

Match Preview & Prediction

Fatih Karagümrük face Kayserispor in Turkey - 1. Lig on Wednesday, September 2, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Fatih Karagümrük a 43% chance, the draw 27% and Kayserispor 30%, so Fatih Karagümrük are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.3 for Fatih Karagümrük and 1.1 for Kayserispor (2.4 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 50% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 53% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Fatih Karagümrük are averaging 1.93 points per game versus 1.93 for Kayserispor. The best value bet our model finds is H/O25, with an expected value of +3.4%.

Fatih Karagümrük vs Kayserispor Prediction— Turkey - 1. Lig

Match Preview & Prediction

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