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Jagiellonia vs Gornik Zabrze Prediction— Poland - Ekstraklasa

Matchday 30 ·Friday, April 24, 2026, 18:30

Jagiellonia

PPG 1.71 · HOME

LAST 5

LWWDW

1 – 2

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · HOME

Gornik Zabrze

PPG 1.07 · AWAY

LAST 5

WLDWW

// Model verdict

Home 48% chance

Model probability 59.5% vs bookmaker-implied 43.5% — a clear edge.

+36.9% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-04.9%0-15.1%0-22.6%0-30.9%0-4+0.3%1 1-09.8%1-110.0%1-25.2%1-31.8%1-4+0.6%2 2-09.7%2-110.0%2-25.1%2-31.8%2-4+0.6%3 3-06.4%3-16.6%3-23.4%3-31.2%3-4+0.4%4+ 4+-05.0%4+-15.1%4+-22.6%4+-30.9%4+-4+0.3%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 59.5% 43.5% 2.30 +36.9%

Draw 21.4% 28.6% 3.50 -25.1%

Away win 19.1% 35.1% 2.85 -45.6%

Over 2.5 57.9% 54.6% 1.83 +6.0%

Over 3.5 35.5% 32.3% 3.10 +10.1%

BTTS 55.4% 59.9% 1.67 -7.5%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 74 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 42%

O2.5 62%

BTTS 54%

Score Hit 41%

ROI -8.6%

Bet Hit 50%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 53%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-2

xG (home)2.0 xG (away)1.0 BTTS prob55.4%

H 60% / xG 2.0-1.0 / O2.5 58% / BTTS 55%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 10.0%

#2 2–1 10.0%

#3 1–0 9.8%

#4 2–0 9.7%

#5 3–1 6.6%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Jagiellonia2.0

Gornik Zabrze1.0

COMBINED 3.0 xG → O2.5 PROB 57.9% · O3.5 PROB 35.5%

Form & verdict PPG

JAGIELLONIA · PPG 1.71

GORNIK ZABRZE · PPG 1.07

✓ SOLID - Moderate edge + strong value

Chance this pick lands

48%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: GOOD (1.71) > Away AVERAGE (1.07)

Win probability 1X2

Jagiellonia (H) 59.5%

ODDS 2.30 · IMPLIED 43.5% EV +36.9%

Draw 21.4%

ODDS 3.50 · IMPLIED 28.6% EV -25.1%

Gornik Zabrze (A) 19.1%

ODDS 2.85 · IMPLIED 35.1% EV -45.6%

Match Preview & Prediction

Jagiellonia face Gornik Zabrze in Poland - Ekstraklasa on Friday, April 24, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Jagiellonia a 60% chance, the draw 21% and Gornik Zabrze 19%, so Jagiellonia are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.0 for Jagiellonia and 1.0 for Gornik Zabrze (3.0 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 58% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 55% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Jagiellonia are averaging 1.71 points per game versus 1.07 for Gornik Zabrze. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +36.9%. This match finished 1-2.

Jagiellonia vs Gornik Zabrze Prediction— Poland - Ekstraklasa

Match Preview & Prediction

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