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Floridsdorfer vs St. Polten Prediction— Austria - 2. Liga

Regular Season - 27 ·Friday, April 24, 2026, 18:30

Floridsdorfer

PPG 1.46 · HOME

0 – 0

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · HOME

St. Polten

PPG 1.42 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home

Model probability 51.8% vs bookmaker-implied 38.2% — a clear edge.

+35.7% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-011.6%0-18.9%0-23.4%0-30.9%0-4+0.2%1 1-016.1%1-112.3%1-24.7%1-31.2%1-4+0.3%2 2-011.2%2-18.6%2-23.3%2-30.8%2-4+0.2%3 3-05.2%3-14.0%3-21.5%3-30.4%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-02.5%4+-11.9%4+-20.7%4+-30.2%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 51.8% 38.2% 2.62 +35.7%

Draw 27.6% 31.3% 3.20 -11.7%

Away win 20.6% 39.2% 2.55 -47.5%

Over 2.5 36.5% 50.0% 2.00 -27.0%

Over 3.5 17.2% 28.6% 3.50 -39.8%

BTTS 40.1% 57.8% 1.73 -30.6%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 32 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 56%

O2.5 53%

BTTS 59%

Score Hit 56%

ROI -31.5%

Bet Hit 43%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 51%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-0

xG (home)1.4 xG (away)0.8 BTTS prob40.1%

H 52% / xG 1.4-0.8 / U2.5 36% / NoBTTS 40%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–0 16.1%

#2 1–1 12.3%

#3 0–0✓ 11.6%

#4 2–0 11.2%

#5 0–1 8.9%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Floridsdorfer1.4

St. Polten0.8

COMBINED 2.2 xG → O2.5 PROB 36.5% · O3.5 PROB 17.2%

Form & verdict PPG

FLORIDSDORFER · PPG 1.46

ST. POLTEN · PPG 1.42

✓ INTERESTING - Balanced match with high-value opportunity

70%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home AVERAGE (1.46), Away AVERAGE (1.42)

Win probability 1X2

Floridsdorfer (H) 51.8%

ODDS 2.62 · IMPLIED 38.2% EV +35.7%

Draw 27.6%

ODDS 3.20 · IMPLIED 31.3% EV -11.7%

St. Polten (A) 20.6%

ODDS 2.55 · IMPLIED 39.2% EV -47.5%

Match Preview & Prediction

Floridsdorfer face St. Polten in Austria - 2. Liga on Friday, April 24, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Floridsdorfer a 52% chance, the draw 28% and St. Polten 21%, so Floridsdorfer are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.4 for Floridsdorfer and 0.8 for St. Polten (2.2 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-0. There is a 37% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 40% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Floridsdorfer are averaging 1.46 points per game versus 1.42 for St. Polten. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +35.7%. This match finished 0-0.

Floridsdorfer vs St. Polten Prediction— Austria - 2. Liga

Match Preview & Prediction

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