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ÅIFK vs EPS Prediction— Finland - Kakkonen Group B

Group B ·Saturday, August 15, 2026, 12:00

ÅIFK

PPG 2.00 · HOME

UPCOMING

EPS

PPG 1.50 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.0 puts the goal expectation above the line. Model probability 59.5% vs bookmaker-implied 78.7%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-04.8%0-15.0%0-22.7%0-30.9%0-4+0.3%1 1-09.4%1-110.0%1-25.3%1-31.9%1-4+0.6%2 2-09.4%2-19.9%2-25.3%2-31.9%2-4+0.6%3 3-06.2%3-16.6%3-23.5%3-31.2%3-4+0.4%4+ 4+-04.9%4+-15.2%4+-22.7%4+-31.0%4+-4+0.3%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 51.9% 66.7% 1.50 -22.1%

Draw 22.2% 23.5% 4.25 -3.4%

Away win 25.9% 21.7% 4.60 +11.5%

Over 2.5 59.5% 78.7% 1.27 -24.4%

Over 3.5 36.5% 58.1% 1.72 -37.2%

BTTS 54.5% — — —

Home O1.5 54.6% — — —

Away O1.5 33.3% 43.9% 2.28 -24.1%

League track record ↗

Based on 41 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 73%

O2.5 66%

BTTS 68%

Score Hit 46%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 48%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)2.0 xG (away)1.1 BTTS prob54.5%

H 52% / xG 2.0-1.1 / O2.5 60% / BTTS 55%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 10.0%

#2 2–1 9.9%

#3 2–0 9.4%

#4 1–0 9.4%

#5 3–1 6.6%

Expected goals MODEL xG

ÅIFK2.0

EPS1.1

COMBINED 3.0 xG → O2.5 PROB 59.5% · O3.5 PROB 36.5%

Form & verdict PPG

ÅIFK · PPG 2.00

EPS · PPG 1.50

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.93 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

ÅIFK (H) 51.9%

ODDS 1.50 · IMPLIED 66.7% EV -22.1%

Draw 22.2%

ODDS 4.25 · IMPLIED 23.5% EV -3.4%

EPS (A) 25.9%

ODDS 4.60 · IMPLIED 21.7% EV +11.5%

Match Preview & Prediction

ÅIFK face EPS in Finland - Kakkonen Group B on Saturday, August 15, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives ÅIFK a 52% chance, the draw 22% and EPS 26%, so ÅIFK are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.0 for ÅIFK and 1.1 for EPS (3.0 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 60% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 55% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, ÅIFK are averaging 2.00 points per game versus 1.50 for EPS.

ÅIFK vs EPS Prediction— Finland - Kakkonen Group B

Match Preview & Prediction

More Finland - Kakkonen Group B Predictions