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Stade Nyonnais vs Vaduz Prediction— Switzerland - Challenge League

Regular Season - 32 ·Friday, April 24, 2026, 18:15

Stade Nyonnais

PPG 1.27 · HOME

1 – 3

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · AWAY

Vaduz

PPG 1.67 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Away

Model probability 61.2% vs bookmaker-implied 59.5% — a real, if thin, edge.

+2.8% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-06.1%0-111.7%0-211.1%0-37.0%0-4+5.2%1 1-05.5%1-110.4%1-29.9%1-36.3%1-4+4.6%2 2-02.4%2-14.6%2-24.4%2-32.8%2-4+2.0%3 3-00.7%3-11.4%3-21.3%3-30.8%3-4+0.6%4+ 4+-00.2%4+-10.4%4+-20.4%4+-30.2%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 17.0% 24.4% 4.10 -30.3%

Draw 21.8% 26.0% 3.85 -16.1%

Away win 61.2% 59.5% 1.68 +2.8%

Over 2.5 52.9% 63.7% 1.57 -17.0%

Over 3.5 30.7% 41.7% 2.40 -26.3%

BTTS 50.2% 65.4% 1.53 -23.2%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 28 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 64%

O2.5 93%

BTTS 79%

Score Hit 39%

ROI 38.5%

Bet Hit 92%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 2 40%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-3

xG (home)0.9 xG (away)1.9 BTTS prob50.2%

A 61% / xG 0.9-1.9 / O2.5 53% / BTTS 50%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–1 11.7%

#2 0–2 11.1%

#3 1–1 10.4%

#4 1–2 9.9%

#5 0–3 7.0%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Stade Nyonnais0.9

Vaduz1.9

COMBINED 2.8 xG → O2.5 PROB 52.9% · O3.5 PROB 30.7%

Form & verdict PPG

STADE NYONNAIS · PPG 1.27

VADUZ · PPG 1.67

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ⚠ RISKY - Form concerns with home team | No clear value

45%

DANGER

Home weakness: AVERAGE (1.27) vs Away GOOD (1.67)

Win probability 1X2

Stade Nyonnais (H) 17.0%

ODDS 4.10 · IMPLIED 24.4% EV -30.3%

Draw 21.8%

ODDS 3.85 · IMPLIED 26.0% EV -16.1%

Vaduz (A) 61.2%

ODDS 1.68 · IMPLIED 59.5% EV +2.8%

Match Preview & Prediction

Stade Nyonnais face Vaduz in Switzerland - Challenge League on Friday, April 24, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Stade Nyonnais a 17% chance, the draw 22% and Vaduz 61%, so Vaduz are favoured to win. Expected goals are 0.9 for Stade Nyonnais and 1.9 for Vaduz (2.8 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-1. There is a 53% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 50% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Stade Nyonnais are averaging 1.27 points per game versus 1.67 for Vaduz. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +2.8%. This match finished 1-3.

Stade Nyonnais vs Vaduz Prediction— Switzerland - Challenge League

Match Preview & Prediction

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