Today / Turkey - 1. Lig / Boluspor vs Keçiörengücü

Boluspor vs Keçiörengücü Prediction— Turkey - 1. Lig

Matchday 5 ·Tuesday, September 1, 2026, 17:00

Boluspor

PPG 1.13 · HOME

LAST 5

LLLLL 

0 – 2

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · O2.5

Keçiörengücü

PPG 1.12 · AWAY

LAST 5

LWDDW

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.2 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 61.6% vs bookmaker-implied 61.7%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-04.1%0-16.7%0-25.6%0-33.1%0-4+1.8%1 1-06.3%1-110.4%1-28.6%1-34.7%1-4+2.8%2 2-04.9%2-18.1%2-26.7%2-33.7%2-4+2.2%3 3-02.5%3-14.2%3-23.4%3-31.9%3-4+1.1%4+ 4+-01.4%4+-12.3%4+-21.9%4+-31.0%4+-4+0.6%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 34.3% 18.5% 5.40 +85.2%

Draw 22.7% 25.3% 3.95 -6.2%

Away win 43.0% 65.4% 1.53 -34.2%

Over 2.5 61.6% 61.7% 1.62 -0.2%

Over 3.5 40.2% 40.0% 2.50 +0.5%

BTTS 61.5% 60.6% 1.65 +1.5%

Home O1.5 45.0% 30.8% 3.25 +46.3%

Away O1.5 47.9% 66.7% 1.50 -28.1%

League track record ↗

Based on 35 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 46%

O2.5 49%

BTTS 51%

Score Hit 49%

ROI -50.8%

Bet Hit 33%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 3 41%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-2

xG (home)1.6 xG (away)1.7 BTTS prob61.5%

A 43% / xG 1.6-1.7 / O2.5 62% / BTTS 62%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 10.4%

#2 1–2 8.6%

#3 2–1 8.1%

#4 0–2✓ 5.6%

#5 2–2 6.7%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Boluspor1.6

Keçiörengücü1.7

COMBINED 3.2 xG → O2.5 PROB 61.6% · O3.5 PROB 40.2%

Form & verdict PPG

BOLUSPOR · PPG 1.13

KEÇIÖRENGÜCÜ · PPG 1.12

✓ INTERESTING - Balanced match with high-value opportunity

70%

BALANCED

xG gap -0.10 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Boluspor (H) 34.3%

ODDS 5.40 · IMPLIED 18.5% EV +85.2%

Draw 22.7%

ODDS 3.95 · IMPLIED 25.3% EV -6.2%

Keçiörengücü (A) 43.0%

ODDS 1.53 · IMPLIED 65.4% EV -34.2%

Match Preview & Prediction

Boluspor face Keçiörengücü in Turkey - 1. Lig on Tuesday, September 1, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Boluspor a 34% chance, the draw 23% and Keçiörengücü 43%, so Keçiörengücü are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.6 for Boluspor and 1.7 for Keçiörengücü (3.2 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 62% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 62% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Boluspor are averaging 1.13 points per game versus 1.12 for Keçiörengücü. The best value bet our model finds is TT_HomeO25, with an expected value of +74.6%. This match finished 0-2.

Boluspor vs Keçiörengücü Prediction— Turkey - 1. Lig

Match Preview & Prediction

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