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Newcastle United U21 vs Fulham U21 Prediction— England - Premier League 2 Division One

Regular Season ·Monday, August 31, 2026, 18:00

Newcastle United U21

PPG 1.03 · HOME

LAST 5

LL ···

0 – 4

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O2.5

Fulham U21

PPG 1.89 · AWAY

LAST 5

WW ···

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.7 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 64.1% vs bookmaker-implied 70.4%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-02.4%0-14.6%0-24.3%0-32.7%0-4+2.0%1 1-04.4%1-18.4%1-27.9%1-35.0%1-4+3.6%2 2-04.0%2-17.7%2-27.3%2-34.6%2-4+3.3%3 3-02.5%3-14.7%3-24.4%3-32.8%3-4+2.0%4+ 4+-01.7%4+-13.2%4+-23.1%4+-31.9%4+-4+1.4%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 35.7% 37.0% 2.70 -3.6%

Draw 23.1% 26.7% 3.75 -8.0%

Away win 41.2% 46.5% 2.15 -11.4%

Over 2.5 64.1% 70.4% 1.42 -9.0%

Over 3.5 44.8% 48.8% 2.05 -8.2%

BTTS 63.5% 73.5% 1.36 -13.6%

Home O1.5 53.9% 52.6% 1.90 +2.4%

Away O1.5 58.3% 58.8% 1.70 -0.9%

League track record ↗

Based on 27 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 44%

O2.5 74%

BTTS 70%

Score Hit 33%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 3 54%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-4

xG (home)1.8 xG (away)1.9 BTTS prob63.5%

A 41% / xG 1.8-1.9 / O2.5 64% / BTTS 64%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 8.4%

#2 1–2 7.9%

#3 2–1 7.7%

#4 2–2 7.3%

#5 1–3 5.0%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Newcastle United U211.8

Fulham U211.9

COMBINED 3.7 xG → O2.5 PROB 64.1% · O3.5 PROB 44.8%

Form & verdict PPG

NEWCASTLE UNITED U21 · PPG 1.03

FULHAM U21 · PPG 1.89

✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value | No clear value

60%

BALANCED

xG gap -0.06 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Newcastle United U21 (H) 35.7%

ODDS 2.70 · IMPLIED 37.0% EV -3.6%

Draw 23.1%

ODDS 3.75 · IMPLIED 26.7% EV -8.0%

Fulham U21 (A) 41.2%

ODDS 2.15 · IMPLIED 46.5% EV -11.4%

Match Preview & Prediction

Newcastle United U21 face Fulham U21 in England - Premier League 2 Division One on Monday, August 31, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Newcastle United U21 a 36% chance, the draw 23% and Fulham U21 41%, so Fulham U21 are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.8 for Newcastle United U21 and 1.9 for Fulham U21 (3.7 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 64% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 64% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Newcastle United U21 are averaging 1.03 points per game versus 1.89 for Fulham U21. The best value bet our model finds is TT_HomeO25, with an expected value of +6.0%. This match finished 0-4.

Newcastle United U21 vs Fulham U21 Prediction— England - Premier League 2 Division One

Match Preview & Prediction

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