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Liverpool U21 vs Leeds United U21 Prediction— England - Premier League 2 Division One

Regular Season ·Sunday, August 30, 2026, 12:00

Liverpool U21

PPG 1.82 · HOME

LAST 5

DW ···

2 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · HOME O1.5

Leeds United U21

PPG 1.24 · AWAY

LAST 5

WL ···

// Model verdict

Home Over 1.5

Model probability 60.1% vs bookmaker-implied 80.0%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-02.2%0-13.7%0-23.1%0-31.7%0-4+1.0%1 1-04.7%1-17.9%1-26.6%1-33.7%1-4+2.2%2 2-05.1%2-18.5%2-27.1%2-33.9%2-4+2.4%3 3-03.6%3-16.0%3-25.0%3-32.8%3-4+1.7%4+ 4+-03.2%4+-15.3%4+-24.4%4+-32.5%4+-4+1.5%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 47.0% 74.1% 1.35 -36.5%

Draw 23.4% 17.4% 5.75 +20.7%

Away win 29.6% 18.5% 5.40 +35.9%

Over 2.5 63.3% 78.1% 1.28 -19.0%

Over 3.5 43.2% 56.5% 1.77 -23.5%

BTTS 63.1% 69.4% 1.44 -9.1%

Home O1.5 60.1% 80.0% 1.25 -24.9%

Away O1.5 47.9% 37.7% 2.65 +26.9%

League track record ↗

Based on 27 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 44%

O2.5 74%

BTTS 70%

Score Hit 33%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 58%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-1

xG (home)2.1 xG (away)1.7 BTTS prob63.1%

H 47% / xG 2.1-1.7 / O2.5 63% / BTTS 63%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 7.9%

#2 2–1✓ 8.5%

#3 2–2 7.1%

#4 1–2 6.6%

#5 3–1 6.0%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Liverpool U212.1

Leeds United U211.7

COMBINED 3.8 xG → O2.5 PROB 63.3% · O3.5 PROB 43.2%

Form & verdict PPG

LIVERPOOL U21 · PPG 1.82

LEEDS UNITED U21 · PPG 1.24

✓ INTERESTING - Balanced match with high-value opportunity

70%

BALANCED

xG gap +0.47 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Liverpool U21 (H) 47.0%

ODDS 1.35 · IMPLIED 74.1% EV -36.5%

Draw 23.4%

ODDS 5.75 · IMPLIED 17.4% EV +20.7%

Leeds United U21 (A) 29.6%

ODDS 5.40 · IMPLIED 18.5% EV +35.9%

Match Preview & Prediction

Liverpool U21 face Leeds United U21 in England - Premier League 2 Division One on Sunday, August 30, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Liverpool U21 a 47% chance, the draw 23% and Leeds United U21 30%, so Liverpool U21 are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.1 for Liverpool U21 and 1.7 for Leeds United U21 (3.8 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 63% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 63% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Liverpool U21 are averaging 1.82 points per game versus 1.24 for Leeds United U21. The best value bet our model finds is A/O25, with an expected value of +35.9%. This match finished 2-1.

Liverpool U21 vs Leeds United U21 Prediction— England - Premier League 2 Division One

Match Preview & Prediction

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