Today / Switzerland - Challenge League / Rapperswil vs Etoile Carouge

Rapperswil vs Etoile Carouge Prediction— Switzerland - Challenge League

Regular Season - 32 ·Friday, April 24, 2026, 17:30

Rapperswil

PPG 1.27 · HOME

2 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · BTTS

Etoile Carouge

PPG 1.20 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 55.4% vs bookmaker-implied 66.7%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-06.5%0-18.8%0-25.9%0-32.6%0-4+1.2%1 1-09.1%1-112.2%1-28.1%1-33.6%1-4+1.6%2 2-06.3%2-18.4%2-25.7%2-32.5%2-4+1.1%3 3-02.9%3-13.9%3-22.6%3-31.2%3-4+0.5%4+ 4+-01.4%4+-11.8%4+-21.2%4+-30.6%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 38.3% 32.3% 3.10 +18.7%

Draw 25.7% 29.0% 3.45 -11.3%

Away win 36.0% 48.8% 2.05 -26.2%

Over 2.5 51.3% 61.7% 1.62 -16.9%

Over 3.5 29.2% 39.2% 2.55 -25.5%

BTTS 55.4% 66.7% 1.50 -16.9%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 28 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 64%

O2.5 93%

BTTS 79%

Score Hit 39%

ROI 38.5%

Bet Hit 92%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 27%CONFIDENCE

✓ HIT — EXACT SCORE

xG (home)1.4 xG (away)1.3 BTTS prob55.4%

H 38% / xG 1.4-1.3 / O2.5 51% / BTTS 55%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.2%

#2 1–0 9.1%

#3 0–1 8.8%

#4 2–1✓ 8.4%

#5 1–2 8.1%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Rapperswil1.4

Etoile Carouge1.3

COMBINED 2.7 xG → O2.5 PROB 51.3% · O3.5 PROB 29.2%

Form & verdict PPG

RAPPERSWIL · PPG 1.27

ETOILE CAROUGE · PPG 1.20

✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value

60%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home AVERAGE (1.27), Away AVERAGE (1.20)

Win probability 1X2

Rapperswil (H) 38.3%

ODDS 3.10 · IMPLIED 32.3% EV +18.7%

Draw 25.7%

ODDS 3.45 · IMPLIED 29.0% EV -11.3%

Etoile Carouge (A) 36.0%

ODDS 2.05 · IMPLIED 48.8% EV -26.2%

Match Preview & Prediction

Rapperswil face Etoile Carouge in Switzerland - Challenge League on Friday, April 24, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Rapperswil a 38% chance, the draw 26% and Etoile Carouge 36%, so Rapperswil are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.4 for Rapperswil and 1.3 for Etoile Carouge (2.7 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 51% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 55% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Rapperswil are averaging 1.27 points per game versus 1.20 for Etoile Carouge. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +18.7%. This match finished 2-1.

Rapperswil vs Etoile Carouge Prediction— Switzerland - Challenge League

Match Preview & Prediction

More Switzerland - Challenge League Predictions