Rapperswil vs Etoile Carouge Prediction— Switzerland - Challenge League

Switzerland - Challenge League Regular Season - 32 Friday, April 24, 2026 17:30

Rapperswil PPG 1.27

2-1 HIT CS4

Etoile Carouge PPG 1.20

Home· +18.7% ✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value

60% confidence

Match Preview & Prediction

Rapperswil face Etoile Carouge in Switzerland - Challenge League on Friday, April 24, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Rapperswil a 38% chance, the draw 26% and Etoile Carouge 36%, so Rapperswil are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.4 for Rapperswil and 1.3 for Etoile Carouge (2.7 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 51% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 55% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Rapperswil are averaging 1.27 points per game versus 1.20 for Etoile Carouge. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +18.7%. This match finished 2-1.

Match Result (1X2)

Home 38.3%

Odds: 3.10 EV: +18.7%

Draw 25.7%

Odds: 3.45 EV: -11.3%

Away 36.0%

Odds: 2.05 EV: -26.2%

Model lean: BTTS Not tracked as an official bet.

Result: Home ✔

Goals Markets

Over 2.5 51.3% Odds: 1.62 -16.9%

Over 3.5 29.2% Odds: 2.55 -25.5%

BTTS 55.4% Odds: 1.50 -16.9%

O2.5 OVER → OVER ✔ BTTS YES → YES ✔

Correct Score Picks

1st 1-1 ✘

2nd 1-0 ✘

3rd 0-1 ✘

4th 2-1 ✔

5th 1-2 ✘

Expected Goals (xG)

Rapperswil

1.39

Etoile Carouge

1.34

Model SuggestionBTTS -16.9% NO VALUE BET
No value bet: model leans BTTS, but EV is -16.9% at these odds — not a recommended bet. 
Highest raw EV: Home (+18.7%) — probability too low to qualify.

Verdict & Form

✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value

60%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home AVERAGE (1.27), Away AVERAGE (1.20)