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Elverum vs Lillehammer Prediction— Norway - 3. Division - Girone 6

Matchday 17 ·Sunday, August 30, 2026, 13:00

Elverum

PPG 2.62 · HOME

LAST 5

WWWWW

4 – 3

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O2.5

Lillehammer

PPG 2.38 · AWAY

LAST 5

WWWWL

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 4.4 puts the goal expectation well above the line.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-01.2%0-12.7%0-23.1%0-32.3%0-4+2.2%1 1-02.7%1-15.9%1-26.6%1-35.0%1-4+4.7%2 2-02.9%2-16.4%2-27.2%2-35.4%2-4+5.1%3 3-02.1%3-14.6%3-25.2%3-33.9%3-4+3.6%4+ 4+-01.8%4+-14.1%4+-24.6%4+-33.5%4+-4+3.3%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 39.9% — — —

Draw 21.3% — — —

Away win 38.8% — — —

Over 2.5 71.7% — — —

Over 3.5 49.4% — — —

BTTS 69.4% — — —

Home O1.5 63.5% — — —

Away O1.5 67.2% — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 49 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 65%

O2.5 74%

BTTS 55%

Score Hit 33%

ROI -22.2%

Bet Hit 60%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–2 7.2%

#2 1–1 5.9%

#3 2–1 6.4%

#4 1–2 6.6%

#5 3–2 5.2%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Elverum2.2

Lillehammer2.2

COMBINED 4.4 xG → O2.5 PROB 71.7% · O3.5 PROB 49.4%

Form & verdict PPG

ELVERUM · PPG 2.62

LILLEHAMMER · PPG 2.38

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value | No clear value

42%

BALANCED

xG gap -0.08 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Elverum (H) 39.9%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 21.3%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Lillehammer (A) 38.8%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Elverum face Lillehammer in Norway - 3. Division - Girone 6 on Sunday, August 30, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Elverum a 40% chance, the draw 21% and Lillehammer 39%, so Elverum are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.2 for Elverum and 2.2 for Lillehammer (4.4 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-2. There is a 72% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 69% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Elverum are averaging 2.62 points per game versus 2.38 for Lillehammer. This match finished 4-3.

Elverum vs Lillehammer Prediction— Norway - 3. Division - Girone 6

Match Preview & Prediction

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