Today / Norway - 3. Division - Girone 4 / Mandalskameratene vs Varhaug

Mandalskameratene vs Varhaug Prediction— Norway - 3. Division - Girone 4

Matchday 17 ·Sunday, August 30, 2026, 11:00

Mandalskameratene

PPG 2.12 · HOME

LAST 5

WLWWL

0 – 2

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · O2.5

Varhaug

PPG 2.43 · AWAY

LAST 5

DLWWW

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.4 puts the goal expectation well above the line.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-03.3%0-14.9%0-23.7%0-31.8%0-4+1.0%1 1-06.3%1-19.4%1-27.1%1-33.5%1-4+1.8%2 2-06.0%2-19.0%2-26.8%2-33.4%2-4+1.8%3 3-03.9%3-15.8%3-24.3%3-32.2%3-4+1.1%4+ 4+-02.9%4+-14.3%4+-23.2%4+-31.6%4+-4+0.8%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 44.6% — — —

Draw 22.1% — — —

Away win 33.3% — — —

Over 2.5 64.6% — — —

Over 3.5 43.2% — — —

BTTS 63.1% — — —

Home O1.5 56.3% — — —

Away O1.5 42.1% — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 47 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 55%

O2.5 77%

BTTS 68%

Score Hit 38%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 9.4%

#2 2–1 9.0%

#3 1–2 7.1%

#4 2–2 6.8%

#5 2–0 6.0%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Mandalskameratene1.9

Varhaug1.5

COMBINED 3.4 xG → O2.5 PROB 64.6% · O3.5 PROB 43.2%

Form & verdict PPG

MANDALSKAMERATENE · PPG 2.12

VARHAUG · PPG 2.43

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value | No clear value

42%

BALANCED

xG gap +0.42 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Mandalskameratene (H) 44.6%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 22.1%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Varhaug (A) 33.3%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Mandalskameratene face Varhaug in Norway - 3. Division - Girone 4 on Sunday, August 30, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Mandalskameratene a 45% chance, the draw 22% and Varhaug 33%, so Mandalskameratene are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.9 for Mandalskameratene and 1.5 for Varhaug (3.4 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 65% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 63% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Mandalskameratene are averaging 2.12 points per game versus 2.43 for Varhaug. This match finished 0-2.

Mandalskameratene vs Varhaug Prediction— Norway - 3. Division - Girone 4

Match Preview & Prediction

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