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Plaza Colonia vs Colón Prediction— Uruguay - Segunda División

2nd Phase · Matchday 15 ·Friday, August 21, 2026, 22:00

Plaza Colonia

PPG 1.89 · HOME

LAST 5

WDWDL

1 – 1

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · HOME

Colón

PPG 1.44 · AWAY

LAST 5

LWWDW

// Model verdict

Home

Model probability 52.5% vs bookmaker-implied 51.3% — a real, if thin, edge.

+2.4% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-012.5%0-18.3%0-22.8%0-30.6%0-4+0.1%1 1-017.7%1-111.8%1-23.9%1-30.9%1-4+0.2%2 2-012.5%2-18.3%2-22.8%2-30.6%2-4+0.1%3 3-05.9%3-13.9%3-21.3%3-30.3%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-02.8%4+-11.9%4+-20.6%4+-30.1%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 52.5% 51.3% 1.95 +2.4%

Draw 25.7% 33.3% 3.00 -13.7%

Away win 21.9% 25.6% 3.90 -8.8%

Over 2.5 44.8% 40.8% 2.45 +9.8%

Over 3.5 27.5% 21.1% 4.75 +18.4%

BTTS 47.6% 47.6% 2.10 -0.0%

Home O1.5 40.0% 42.6% 2.35 -6.0%

Away O1.5 17.9% 25.3% 3.95 -17.6%

League track record ↗

Based on 38 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 40%

O2.5 45%

BTTS 55%

Score Hit 50%

ROI -32.8%

Bet Hit 33%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 36%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-1

xG (home)1.4 xG (away)0.7 BTTS prob47.6%

H 52% / xG 1.4-0.7 / U2.5 45% / NoBTTS 48%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–0 17.7%

#2 2–0 12.5%

#3 0–0 12.5%

#4 1–1✓ 11.8%

#5 0–1 8.3%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Plaza Colonia1.4

Colón0.7

COMBINED 2.1 xG → O2.5 PROB 44.8% · O3.5 PROB 27.5%

Form & verdict PPG

PLAZA COLONIA · PPG 1.89

COLÓN · PPG 1.44

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.75 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Plaza Colonia (H) 52.5%

ODDS 1.95 · IMPLIED 51.3% EV +2.4%

Draw 25.7%

ODDS 3.00 · IMPLIED 33.3% EV -13.7%

Colón (A) 21.9%

ODDS 3.90 · IMPLIED 25.6% EV -8.8%

Match Preview & Prediction

Plaza Colonia face Colón in Uruguay - Segunda División on Friday, August 21, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Plaza Colonia a 53% chance, the draw 26% and Colón 22%, so Plaza Colonia are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.4 for Plaza Colonia and 0.7 for Colón (2.1 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-0. There is a 45% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 48% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Plaza Colonia are averaging 1.89 points per game versus 1.44 for Colón. The best value bet our model finds is over 3.5 goals, with an expected value of +18.4%. This match finished 1-1.

Plaza Colonia vs Colón Prediction— Uruguay - Segunda División

Match Preview & Prediction

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