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H&H Export vs Real Estelí Prediction— Nicaragua - Primera Division

Apertura · Matchday 7 ·Sunday, August 30, 2026, 21:00

H&H Export

PPG 1.61 · HOME

LAST 5

DWWLL

0 – 5

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · BTTS

Real Estelí

PPG 1.89 · AWAY

LAST 5

WWWLW

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 54.3% vs bookmaker-implied 55.6%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-07.7%0-19.9%0-26.4%0-32.8%0-4+1.2%1 1-09.8%1-112.6%1-28.2%1-33.5%1-4+1.5%2 2-06.2%2-18.1%2-25.2%2-32.2%2-4+1.0%3 3-02.7%3-13.4%3-22.2%3-31.0%3-4+0.4%4+ 4+-01.1%4+-11.4%4+-20.9%4+-30.4%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 35.9% 19.0% 5.25 +88.5%

Draw 26.3% 26.7% 3.75 -0.8%

Away win 37.9% 64.5% 1.55 -41.3%

Over 2.5 52.9% 55.6% 1.80 -4.8%

Over 3.5 31.2% 33.3% 3.00 -6.4%

BTTS 54.3% 55.6% 1.80 -2.3%

Home O1.5 37.2% 26.7% 3.75 +39.5%

Away O1.5 36.6% 60.6% 1.65 -39.6%

League track record ↗

Based on 17 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 65%

O2.5 53%

BTTS 29%

Score Hit 47%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 2 24%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-5

xG (home)1.3 xG (away)1.3 BTTS prob54.3%

A 38% / xG 1.3-1.3 / O2.5 53% / BTTS 54%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.6%

#2 1–2 8.2%

#3 0–1 9.9%

#4 2–1 8.1%

#5 0–0 7.7%

Expected goals MODEL xG

H&H Export1.3

Real Estelí1.3

COMBINED 2.6 xG → O2.5 PROB 52.9% · O3.5 PROB 31.2%

Form & verdict PPG

H&H EXPORT · PPG 1.61

REAL ESTELÍ · PPG 1.89

✓ INTERESTING - Balanced match with high-value opportunity

70%

BALANCED

xG gap -0.02 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

H&H Export (H) 35.9%

ODDS 5.25 · IMPLIED 19.0% EV +88.5%

Draw 26.3%

ODDS 3.75 · IMPLIED 26.7% EV -0.8%

Real Estelí (A) 37.9%

ODDS 1.55 · IMPLIED 64.5% EV -41.3%

Match Preview & Prediction

H&H Export face Real Estelí in Nicaragua - Primera Division on Sunday, August 30, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives H&H Export a 36% chance, the draw 26% and Real Estelí 38%, so Real Estelí are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.3 for H&H Export and 1.3 for Real Estelí (2.6 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 53% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 54% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, H&H Export are averaging 1.61 points per game versus 1.89 for Real Estelí. The best value bet our model finds is H/BTTS, with an expected value of +44.8%. This match finished 0-5.

H&H Export vs Real Estelí Prediction— Nicaragua - Primera Division

Match Preview & Prediction

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