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Jalapa vs Rancho Santana Prediction— Nicaragua - Primera Division

Apertura · Matchday 8 ·Wednesday, September 2, 2026, 22:00

Jalapa

PPG 1.38 · HOME

UPCOMING

Rancho Santana

PPG 1.03 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 2.3 puts the goal expectation near the line. Model probability 50.4% vs bookmaker-implied 55.6%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-010.0%0-18.4%0-23.5%0-31.0%0-4+0.3%1 1-014.6%1-112.3%1-25.2%1-31.5%1-4+0.4%2 2-010.7%2-19.0%2-23.8%2-31.1%2-4+0.3%3 3-05.2%3-14.4%3-21.8%3-30.5%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-02.6%4+-12.2%4+-20.9%4+-30.3%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 47.0% 57.8% 1.73 -18.7%

Draw 26.7% 27.8% 3.60 -2.3%

Away win 26.3% 25.6% 3.90 +1.5%

Over 2.5 50.4% 55.6% 1.80 -9.3%

Over 3.5 28.7% 37.6% 2.66 -14.2%

BTTS 49.9% 60.6% 1.65 -17.7%

Home O1.5 39.9% 58.1% 1.72 -31.4%

Away O1.5 24.1% 32.9% 3.04 -16.0%

League track record ↗

Based on 17 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 65%

O2.5 53%

BTTS 29%

Score Hit 47%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 23%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.5 xG (away)0.8 BTTS prob49.9%

H 47% / xG 1.5-0.8 / U2.5 50% / NoBTTS 50%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.3%

#2 1–0 14.6%

#3 0–0 10.0%

#4 2–0 10.7%

#5 0–1 8.4%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Jalapa1.5

Rancho Santana0.8

COMBINED 2.3 xG → O2.5 PROB 50.4% · O3.5 PROB 28.7%

Form & verdict PPG

JALAPA · PPG 1.38

RANCHO SANTANA · PPG 1.03

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.62 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Jalapa (H) 47.0%

ODDS 1.73 · IMPLIED 57.8% EV -18.7%

Draw 26.7%

ODDS 3.60 · IMPLIED 27.8% EV -2.3%

Rancho Santana (A) 26.3%

ODDS 3.90 · IMPLIED 25.6% EV +1.5%

Match Preview & Prediction

Jalapa face Rancho Santana in Nicaragua - Primera Division on Wednesday, September 2, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Jalapa a 47% chance, the draw 27% and Rancho Santana 26%, so Jalapa are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.5 for Jalapa and 0.8 for Rancho Santana (2.3 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 50% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 50% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Jalapa are averaging 1.38 points per game versus 1.03 for Rancho Santana.

Jalapa vs Rancho Santana Prediction— Nicaragua - Primera Division

Match Preview & Prediction

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