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Jalapa vs Matagalpa Prediction— Nicaragua - Primera Division

Apertura · Matchday 6 ·Sunday, August 23, 2026, 21:00

Jalapa

PPG 1.56 · HOME

LAST 5

LLLLL 

0 – 1

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · BTTS

Matagalpa

PPG 1.08 · AWAY

LAST 5

LLWWL

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 53.0% vs bookmaker-implied 59.9%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-08.0%0-17.0%0-23.1%0-30.9%0-4+0.2%1 1-013.2%1-111.6%1-25.1%1-31.5%1-4+0.4%2 2-010.9%2-19.5%2-24.2%2-31.2%2-4+0.3%3 3-06.0%3-15.2%3-22.3%3-30.7%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-03.6%4+-13.1%4+-21.4%4+-30.4%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 52.3% 51.3% 1.95 +2.0%

Draw 24.3% 30.3% 3.30 -11.9%

Away win 23.4% 27.8% 3.60 -9.5%

Over 2.5 50.2% 54.6% 1.83 -8.1%

Over 3.5 28.7% 32.3% 3.10 -6.6%

BTTS 53.0% 59.9% 1.67 -11.5%

Home O1.5 47.4% 52.4% 1.91 -9.5%

Away O1.5 22.8% 35.1% 2.85 -21.0%

League track record ↗

Based on 17 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 65%

O2.5 53%

BTTS 29%

Score Hit 47%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 29%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-1

xG (home)1.6 xG (away)0.9 BTTS prob53.0%

H 52% / xG 1.6-0.9 / O2.5 50% / BTTS 53%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.6%

#2 1–0 13.2%

#3 2–0 10.9%

#4 2–1 9.5%

#5 0–0 8.0%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Jalapa1.6

Matagalpa0.9

COMBINED 2.5 xG → O2.5 PROB 50.2% · O3.5 PROB 28.7%

Form & verdict PPG

JALAPA · PPG 1.56

MATAGALPA · PPG 1.08

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.77 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Jalapa (H) 52.3%

ODDS 1.95 · IMPLIED 51.3% EV +2.0%

Draw 24.3%

ODDS 3.30 · IMPLIED 30.3% EV -11.9%

Matagalpa (A) 23.4%

ODDS 3.60 · IMPLIED 27.8% EV -9.5%

Match Preview & Prediction

Jalapa face Matagalpa in Nicaragua - Primera Division on Sunday, August 23, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Jalapa a 52% chance, the draw 24% and Matagalpa 23%, so Jalapa are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.6 for Jalapa and 0.9 for Matagalpa (2.5 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 50% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 53% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Jalapa are averaging 1.56 points per game versus 1.08 for Matagalpa. This match finished 0-1.

Jalapa vs Matagalpa Prediction— Nicaragua - Primera Division

Match Preview & Prediction

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