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Walter Ferretti vs UNAN Managua Prediction— Nicaragua - Primera Division

Apertura · Matchday 6 ·Monday, August 24, 2026, 01:00

Walter Ferretti

PPG 1.65 · HOME

LAST 5

WLWLL

0 – 1

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · BTTS

UNAN Managua

PPG 1.23 · AWAY

LAST 5

DWWWL

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 60.8% vs bookmaker-implied 57.1% — a real, if thin, edge.

+6.4% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-04.6%0-16.1%0-24.1%0-31.8%0-4+0.8%1 1-08.1%1-110.7%1-27.1%1-33.1%1-4+1.4%2 2-07.1%2-19.4%2-26.2%2-32.7%2-4+1.2%3 3-04.1%3-15.5%3-23.6%3-31.6%3-4+0.7%4+ 4+-02.7%4+-13.5%4+-22.3%4+-31.0%4+-4+0.5%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 46.7% 57.1% 1.75 -18.3%

Draw 23.9% 30.3% 3.30 -12.7%

Away win 29.4% 25.0% 4.00 +10.6%

Over 2.5 60.1% 54.1% 1.85 +11.2%

Over 3.5 37.5% 34.2% 2.92 +9.5%

BTTS 60.8% 57.1% 1.75 +6.4%

Home O1.5 48.9% 54.9% 1.82 -11.0%

Away O1.5 40.9% 31.1% 3.22 +31.7%

League track record ↗

Based on 17 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 65%

O2.5 53%

BTTS 29%

Score Hit 47%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 50%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-1

xG (home)1.7 xG (away)1.3 BTTS prob60.8%

H 47% / xG 1.7-1.3 / O2.5 60% / BTTS 61%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 10.7%

#2 2–1 9.4%

#3 1–2 7.1%

#4 2–0 7.1%

#5 1–0 8.1%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Walter Ferretti1.7

UNAN Managua1.3

COMBINED 3.1 xG → O2.5 PROB 60.1% · O3.5 PROB 37.5%

Form & verdict PPG

WALTER FERRETTI · PPG 1.65

UNAN MANAGUA · PPG 1.23

✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value

60%

BALANCED

xG gap +0.42 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Walter Ferretti (H) 46.7%

ODDS 1.75 · IMPLIED 57.1% EV -18.3%

Draw 23.9%

ODDS 3.30 · IMPLIED 30.3% EV -12.7%

UNAN Managua (A) 29.4%

ODDS 4.00 · IMPLIED 25.0% EV +10.6%

Match Preview & Prediction

Walter Ferretti face UNAN Managua in Nicaragua - Primera Division on Monday, August 24, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Walter Ferretti a 47% chance, the draw 24% and UNAN Managua 29%, so Walter Ferretti are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.7 for Walter Ferretti and 1.3 for UNAN Managua (3.1 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 60% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 61% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Walter Ferretti are averaging 1.65 points per game versus 1.23 for UNAN Managua. The best value bet our model finds is AwayO15, with an expected value of +31.7%. This match finished 0-1.

Walter Ferretti vs UNAN Managua Prediction— Nicaragua - Primera Division

Match Preview & Prediction

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