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UNAN Managua vs Managua Prediction— Nicaragua - Primera Division

Apertura · Matchday 7 ·Monday, August 31, 2026, 01:00

UNAN Managua

PPG 1.75 · HOME

LAST 5

DWWWL

0 – 2

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · O2.5

Managua

PPG 1.86 · AWAY

LAST 5

WWWWW

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 2.8 puts the goal expectation above the line. Model probability 56.1% vs bookmaker-implied 57.8%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-06.2%0-19.6%0-27.5%0-33.9%0-4+2.1%1 1-07.6%1-111.8%1-29.2%1-34.8%1-4+2.6%2 2-04.7%2-17.2%2-25.6%2-32.9%2-4+1.6%3 3-01.9%3-13.0%3-22.3%3-31.2%3-4+0.7%4+ 4+-00.8%4+-11.2%4+-20.9%4+-30.5%4+-4+0.3%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 29.7% 21.1% 4.75 +24.6%

Draw 24.0% 27.8% 3.60 -8.2%

Away win 46.2% 61.0% 1.64 -24.2%

Over 2.5 56.1% 57.8% 1.73 -2.9%

Over 3.5 35.1% 36.4% 2.75 -3.5%

BTTS 55.9% 60.6% 1.65 -7.8%

Home O1.5 33.8% 31.3% 3.20 +8.2%

Away O1.5 47.9% 60.6% 1.65 -21.0%

League track record ↗

Based on 17 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 65%

O2.5 53%

BTTS 29%

Score Hit 47%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 2 38%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-2

xG (home)1.2 xG (away)1.6 BTTS prob55.9%

A 46% / xG 1.2-1.6 / O2.5 56% / BTTS 56%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.8%

#2 1–2 9.2%

#3 0–1 9.6%

#4 0–2✓ 7.5%

#5 2–1 7.2%

Expected goals MODEL xG

UNAN Managua1.2

Managua1.6

COMBINED 2.8 xG → O2.5 PROB 56.1% · O3.5 PROB 35.1%

Form & verdict PPG

UNAN MANAGUA · PPG 1.75

MANAGUA · PPG 1.86

✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value

60%

BALANCED

xG gap -0.33 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

UNAN Managua (H) 29.7%

ODDS 4.75 · IMPLIED 21.1% EV +24.6%

Draw 24.0%

ODDS 3.60 · IMPLIED 27.8% EV -8.2%

Managua (A) 46.2%

ODDS 1.64 · IMPLIED 61.0% EV -24.2%

Match Preview & Prediction

UNAN Managua face Managua in Nicaragua - Primera Division on Monday, August 31, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives UNAN Managua a 30% chance, the draw 24% and Managua 46%, so Managua are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.2 for UNAN Managua and 1.6 for Managua (2.8 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 56% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 56% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, UNAN Managua are averaging 1.75 points per game versus 1.86 for Managua. The best value bet our model finds is H/O25, with an expected value of +36.9%. This match finished 0-2.

UNAN Managua vs Managua Prediction— Nicaragua - Primera Division

Match Preview & Prediction

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