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Real Estelí vs Diriangén Prediction— Nicaragua - Primera Division

Apertura · Matchday 6 ·Sunday, August 23, 2026, 01:00

Real Estelí

PPG 2.03 · HOME

LAST 5

WWWLW

0 – 2

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · BTTS

Diriangén

PPG 2.02 · AWAY

LAST 5

WDWWW

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 54.7% vs bookmaker-implied 55.6%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-06.4%0-17.1%0-23.9%0-31.4%0-4+0.5%1 1-010.5%1-111.6%1-26.4%1-32.4%1-4+0.8%2 2-08.6%2-19.6%2-25.3%2-32.0%2-4+0.7%3 3-04.7%3-15.2%3-22.9%3-31.1%3-4+0.4%4+ 4+-02.8%4+-13.1%4+-21.7%4+-30.6%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 48.6% 42.0% 2.38 +15.7%

Draw 24.3% 33.3% 3.00 -16.3%

Away win 27.0% 35.7% 2.80 -14.6%

Over 2.5 53.9% 50.0% 2.00 +7.8%

Over 3.5 31.6% 29.2% 3.42 +8.1%

BTTS 54.7% 55.6% 1.80 -1.5%

Home O1.5 47.4% 43.1% 2.32 +10.0%

Away O1.5 35.6% 34.1% 2.93 +4.3%

League track record ↗

Based on 17 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 65%

O2.5 53%

BTTS 29%

Score Hit 47%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 36%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-2

xG (home)1.6 xG (away)1.1 BTTS prob54.7%

H 49% / xG 1.6-1.1 / O2.5 54% / BTTS 55%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.6%

#2 2–1 9.6%

#3 1–0 10.5%

#4 2–0 8.6%

#5 1–2 6.4%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Real Estelí1.6

Diriangén1.1

COMBINED 2.8 xG → O2.5 PROB 53.9% · O3.5 PROB 31.6%

Form & verdict PPG

REAL ESTELÍ · PPG 2.03

DIRIANGÉN · PPG 2.02

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.54 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Real Estelí (H) 48.6%

ODDS 2.38 · IMPLIED 42.0% EV +15.7%

Draw 24.3%

ODDS 3.00 · IMPLIED 33.3% EV -16.3%

Diriangén (A) 27.0%

ODDS 2.80 · IMPLIED 35.7% EV -14.6%

Match Preview & Prediction

Real Estelí face Diriangén in Nicaragua - Primera Division on Sunday, August 23, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Real Estelí a 49% chance, the draw 24% and Diriangén 27%, so Real Estelí are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.6 for Real Estelí and 1.1 for Diriangén (2.8 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 54% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 55% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Real Estelí are averaging 2.03 points per game versus 2.02 for Diriangén. The best value bet our model finds is H/O25, with an expected value of +25.2%. This match finished 0-2.

Real Estelí vs Diriangén Prediction— Nicaragua - Primera Division

Match Preview & Prediction

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