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Matagalpa vs Rancho Santana Prediction— Nicaragua - Primera Division

Apertura · Matchday 7 ·Sunday, August 30, 2026, 01:00

Matagalpa

PPG 1.15 · HOME

LAST 5

LLWWL

0 – 1

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · BTTS

Rancho Santana

PPG 0.78 · AWAY

LAST 5

LLLLW

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 54.3% vs bookmaker-implied 64.5%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-06.2%0-16.7%0-23.6%0-31.3%0-4+0.4%1 1-010.6%1-111.4%1-26.2%1-32.2%1-4+0.8%2 2-09.0%2-19.7%2-25.2%2-31.9%2-4+0.6%3 3-05.1%3-15.5%3-23.0%3-31.1%3-4+0.4%4+ 4+-03.1%4+-13.4%4+-21.8%4+-30.7%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 51.3% 62.5% 1.60 -17.9%

Draw 24.3% 26.3% 3.80 -4.6%

Away win 24.4% 21.1% 4.75 +9.5%

Over 2.5 53.5% 63.7% 1.57 -16.0%

Over 3.5 31.5% 41.7% 2.40 -24.4%

BTTS 54.3% 64.5% 1.55 -15.8%

Home O1.5 48.9% 64.5% 1.55 -24.2%

Away O1.5 32.8% 34.5% 2.90 -4.9%

League track record ↗

Based on 17 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 65%

O2.5 53%

BTTS 29%

Score Hit 47%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 37%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-1

xG (home)1.7 xG (away)1.1 BTTS prob54.3%

H 51% / xG 1.7-1.1 / O2.5 54% / BTTS 54%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.4%

#2 2–1 9.7%

#3 2–0 9.0%

#4 1–0 10.6%

#5 0–0 6.2%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Matagalpa1.7

Rancho Santana1.1

COMBINED 2.8 xG → O2.5 PROB 53.5% · O3.5 PROB 31.5%

Form & verdict PPG

MATAGALPA · PPG 1.15

RANCHO SANTANA · PPG 0.78

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.62 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Matagalpa (H) 51.3%

ODDS 1.60 · IMPLIED 62.5% EV -17.9%

Draw 24.3%

ODDS 3.80 · IMPLIED 26.3% EV -4.6%

Rancho Santana (A) 24.4%

ODDS 4.75 · IMPLIED 21.1% EV +9.5%

Match Preview & Prediction

Matagalpa face Rancho Santana in Nicaragua - Primera Division on Sunday, August 30, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Matagalpa a 51% chance, the draw 24% and Rancho Santana 24%, so Matagalpa are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.7 for Matagalpa and 1.1 for Rancho Santana (2.8 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 54% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 54% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Matagalpa are averaging 1.15 points per game versus 0.78 for Rancho Santana. The best value bet our model finds is A/O25, with an expected value of +12.2%. This match finished 0-1.

Matagalpa vs Rancho Santana Prediction— Nicaragua - Primera Division

Match Preview & Prediction

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