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UNAN Managua vs Jalapa Prediction— Nicaragua - Primera Division

Apertura · Matchday 5 ·Monday, August 17, 2026, 00:00

UNAN Managua

PPG 1.54 · HOME

UPCOMING

Jalapa

PPG 0.98 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 53.1% vs bookmaker-implied 61.7%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-07.7%0-17.1%0-23.2%0-31.0%0-4+0.3%1 1-012.7%1-111.6%1-25.3%1-31.6%1-4+0.5%2 2-010.4%2-19.6%2-24.4%2-31.3%2-4+0.4%3 3-05.7%3-15.3%3-22.4%3-30.7%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-03.4%4+-13.1%4+-21.4%4+-30.4%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 52.8% 46.5% 2.15 +13.5%

Draw 24.2% 30.8% 3.25 -12.8%

Away win 23.0% 32.3% 3.10 -17.2%

Over 2.5 51.9% 55.6% 1.80 -6.6%

Over 3.5 30.0% 33.3% 3.00 -10.0%

BTTS 53.1% 61.7% 1.62 -14.0%

Home O1.5 47.3% 50.0% 2.00 -5.4%

Away O1.5 24.6% 39.2% 2.55 -22.4%

League track record ↗

Based on 7 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 86%

O2.5 71%

BTTS 29%

Score Hit 71%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 32%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.6 xG (away)0.9 BTTS prob53.1%

H 53% / xG 1.6-0.9 / O2.5 52% / BTTS 53%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.6%

#2 1–0 12.7%

#3 2–0 10.4%

#4 2–1 9.6%

#5 0–0 7.7%

Expected goals MODEL xG

UNAN Managua1.6

Jalapa0.9

COMBINED 2.6 xG → O2.5 PROB 51.9% · O3.5 PROB 30.0%

Form & verdict PPG

UNAN MANAGUA · PPG 1.54

JALAPA · PPG 0.98

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.73 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

UNAN Managua (H) 52.8%

ODDS 2.15 · IMPLIED 46.5% EV +13.5%

Draw 24.2%

ODDS 3.25 · IMPLIED 30.8% EV -12.8%

Jalapa (A) 23.0%

ODDS 3.10 · IMPLIED 32.3% EV -17.2%

Match Preview & Prediction

UNAN Managua face Jalapa in Nicaragua - Primera Division on Monday, August 17, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives UNAN Managua a 53% chance, the draw 24% and Jalapa 23%, so UNAN Managua are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.6 for UNAN Managua and 0.9 for Jalapa (2.6 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 52% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 53% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, UNAN Managua are averaging 1.54 points per game versus 0.98 for Jalapa. The best value bet our model finds is H/BTTS, with an expected value of +0.5%.

UNAN Managua vs Jalapa Prediction— Nicaragua - Primera Division

Match Preview & Prediction

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