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Diriangén vs Jalapa Prediction— Nicaragua - Primera Division

Apertura · Matchday 7 ·Sunday, August 30, 2026, 00:00

Diriangén

PPG 1.86 · HOME

LAST 5

WDWWW

2 – 0

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · HOME O1.5

Jalapa

PPG 0.84 · AWAY

LAST 5

LLLLL 

// Model verdict

Home Over 1.5

Model probability 59.6% vs bookmaker-implied 70.4%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-05.8%0-14.3%0-21.6%0-30.4%0-4+0.1%1 1-012.1%1-19.1%1-23.4%1-30.9%1-4+0.2%2 2-012.7%2-19.6%2-23.6%2-30.9%2-4+0.2%3 3-08.9%3-16.7%3-22.5%3-30.6%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-07.6%4+-15.7%4+-22.2%4+-30.5%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 63.8% 75.2% 1.33 -15.2%

Draw 21.1% 22.7% 4.40 -4.3%

Away win 15.2% 12.2% 8.20 +14.8%

Over 2.5 53.5% 60.6% 1.65 -11.7%

Over 3.5 31.5% 38.5% 2.60 -18.1%

BTTS 49.2% 54.1% 1.85 -9.0%

Home O1.5 59.6% 70.4% 1.42 -15.4%

Away O1.5 20.0% 22.2% 4.50 -6.0%

League track record ↗

Based on 17 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 65%

O2.5 53%

BTTS 29%

Score Hit 47%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 0 45%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-0

xG (home)2.1 xG (away)0.8 BTTS prob49.2%

H 64% / xG 2.1-0.8 / O2.5 54% / NoBTTS 49%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–0✓ 12.7%

#2 1–0 12.1%

#3 1–1 9.1%

#4 2–1 9.6%

#5 3–0 8.9%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Diriangén2.1

Jalapa0.8

COMBINED 2.9 xG → O2.5 PROB 53.5% · O3.5 PROB 31.5%

Form & verdict PPG

DIRIANGÉN · PPG 1.86

JALAPA · PPG 0.84

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +1.35 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Diriangén (H) 63.8%

ODDS 1.33 · IMPLIED 75.2% EV -15.2%

Draw 21.1%

ODDS 4.40 · IMPLIED 22.7% EV -4.3%

Jalapa (A) 15.2%

ODDS 8.20 · IMPLIED 12.2% EV +14.8%

Match Preview & Prediction

Diriangén face Jalapa in Nicaragua - Primera Division on Sunday, August 30, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Diriangén a 64% chance, the draw 21% and Jalapa 15%, so Diriangén are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.1 for Diriangén and 0.8 for Jalapa (2.9 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-0. There is a 54% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 49% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Diriangén are averaging 1.86 points per game versus 0.84 for Jalapa. The best value bet our model finds is A/BTTS, with an expected value of +11.8%. This match finished 2-0.

Diriangén vs Jalapa Prediction— Nicaragua - Primera Division

Match Preview & Prediction

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