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Puebla W vs Necaxa W Prediction— Mexico - Liga MX Femenil

Matchday 5 ·Sunday, August 30, 2026, 18:00

Puebla W

PPG 0.65 · HOME

LAST 5

LLLLW

4 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O2.5

Necaxa W

PPG 0.46 · AWAY

LAST 5

LLLLL 

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.7 puts the goal expectation well above the line.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-02.4%0-13.9%0-23.2%0-31.8%0-4+1.1%1 1-04.9%1-18.2%1-26.8%1-33.7%1-4+2.2%2 2-05.2%2-18.5%2-27.1%2-33.9%2-4+2.3%3 3-03.6%3-16.0%3-24.9%3-32.7%3-4+1.6%4+ 4+-03.0%4+-15.0%4+-24.2%4+-32.3%4+-4+1.4%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 47.5% — — —

Draw 22.6% — — —

Away win 29.9% — — —

Over 2.5 68.2% — — —

Over 3.5 48.2% — — —

BTTS 66.9% — — —

Home O1.5 59.6% — — —

Away O1.5 47.9% — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 19 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 74%

O2.5 63%

BTTS 47%

Score Hit 16%

ROI -9.9%

Bet Hit 57%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 8.2%

#2 2–1 8.5%

#3 1–2 6.8%

#4 2–2 7.1%

#5 3–1 6.0%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Puebla W2.1

Necaxa W1.7

COMBINED 3.7 xG → O2.5 PROB 68.2% · O3.5 PROB 48.2%

Form & verdict PPG

PUEBLA W · PPG 0.65

NECAXA W · PPG 0.46

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value | No clear value

42%

BALANCED

xG gap +0.43 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Puebla W (H) 47.5%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 22.6%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Necaxa W (A) 29.9%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Puebla W face Necaxa W in Mexico - Liga MX Femenil on Sunday, August 30, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Puebla W a 48% chance, the draw 23% and Necaxa W 30%, so Puebla W are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.1 for Puebla W and 1.7 for Necaxa W (3.7 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 68% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 67% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Puebla W are averaging 0.65 points per game versus 0.46 for Necaxa W. This match finished 4-1.

Puebla W vs Necaxa W Prediction— Mexico - Liga MX Femenil

Match Preview & Prediction

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