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Flandria vs San Martín Burzaco Prediction— Argentina - Primera B Metropolitana

Matchday 33 ·Sunday, August 30, 2026, 18:00

Flandria

PPG 1.38 · HOME

LAST 5

DDWLW

2 – 0

FULL TIME

San Martín Burzaco

PPG 1.44 · AWAY

LAST 5

LDLWL

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-013.9%0-113.9%0-26.9%0-32.3%0-4+0.7%1 1-013.5%1-113.5%1-26.8%1-32.3%1-4+0.7%2 2-06.6%2-16.6%2-23.3%2-31.1%2-4+0.3%3 3-02.1%3-12.1%3-21.1%3-30.4%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-00.6%4+-10.6%4+-20.3%4+-30.1%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 34.9% 43.5% 2.30 -19.7%

Draw 30.7% 34.7% 2.88 -11.6%

Away win 34.4% 32.3% 3.10 +6.6%

Over 2.5 43.1% 39.2% 2.55 +9.9%

Over 3.5 20.7% 22.2% 4.50 -4.1%

BTTS 47.2% 48.8% 2.05 -3.2%

Home O1.5 30.9% 37.0% 2.70 -16.6%

Away O1.5 30.8% 29.4% 3.40 +4.7%

League track record ↗

Based on 173 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 41%

O2.5 72%

BTTS 65%

Score Hit 68%

ROI 17.6%

Bet Hit 55%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 1 41%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-0

xG (home)1.0 xG (away)1.0 BTTS prob47.2%

D 31% / xG 1.0-1.0 / U2.5 43% / NoBTTS 47%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–0 13.9%

#2 1–1 13.5%

#3 1–0 13.5%

#4 0–1 13.9%

#5 2–0✓ 6.6%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Flandria1.0

San Martín Burzaco1.0

COMBINED 2.0 xG → O2.5 PROB 43.1% · O3.5 PROB 20.7%

Form & verdict PPG

FLANDRIA · PPG 1.38

SAN MARTÍN BURZACO · PPG 1.44

⚖ HIGH DRAW RISK - evenly matched, low-scoring expected

65%

HIGH_DRAW_RISK

xG gap -0.03, combined xG 1.98 - evenly matched, low-scoring, elevated Draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Flandria (H) 34.9%

ODDS 2.30 · IMPLIED 43.5% EV -19.7%

Draw 30.7%

ODDS 2.88 · IMPLIED 34.7% EV -11.6%

San Martín Burzaco (A) 34.4%

ODDS 3.10 · IMPLIED 32.3% EV +6.6%

Match Preview & Prediction

Flandria face San Martín Burzaco in Argentina - Primera B Metropolitana on Sunday, August 30, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Flandria a 35% chance, the draw 31% and San Martín Burzaco 34%, so Flandria are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.0 for Flandria and 1.0 for San Martín Burzaco (2.0 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-0. There is a 43% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 47% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Flandria are averaging 1.38 points per game versus 1.44 for San Martín Burzaco. The best value bet our model finds is over 2.5 goals, with an expected value of +9.9%. This match finished 2-0.

Flandria vs San Martín Burzaco Prediction— Argentina - Primera B Metropolitana

Match Preview & Prediction

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