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Deportivo Laferrere vs Real Pilar Prediction— Argentina - Primera B Metropolitana

Matchday 33 ·Saturday, August 29, 2026, 18:00

Deportivo Laferrere

PPG 1.25 · HOME

LAST 5

DLLWD

1 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · BTTS

Real Pilar

PPG 1.62 · AWAY

LAST 5

DDWWD

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 52.7% vs bookmaker-implied 48.8% — a real, if thin, edge.

+8.0% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-09.4%0-111.5%0-27.1%0-32.9%0-4+1.2%1 1-010.7%1-113.1%1-28.1%1-33.3%1-4+1.3%2 2-06.1%2-17.5%2-24.6%2-31.9%2-4+0.8%3 3-02.3%3-12.8%3-21.7%3-30.7%3-4+0.3%4+ 4+-00.8%4+-11.0%4+-20.6%4+-30.3%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 34.2% 40.0% 2.50 -14.5%

Draw 27.0% 37.0% 2.70 -16.3%

Away win 38.8% 34.5% 2.90 +12.5%

Over 2.5 50.5% 40.0% 2.50 +26.3%

Over 3.5 28.7% 22.2% 4.50 +17.5%

BTTS 52.7% 48.8% 2.05 +8.0%

Home O1.5 31.1% 36.4% 2.75 -14.5%

Away O1.5 36.6% 30.8% 3.25 +18.9%

League track record ↗

Based on 173 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 41%

O2.5 72%

BTTS 65%

Score Hit 68%

ROI 17.6%

Bet Hit 55%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 1 20%CONFIDENCE

✓ HIT — EXACT SCORE

xG (home)1.1 xG (away)1.2 BTTS prob52.7%

A 39% / xG 1.1-1.2 / U2.5 50% / BTTS 53%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1✓ 13.1%

#2 0–1 11.5%

#3 0–0 9.4%

#4 1–0 10.7%

#5 1–2 8.1%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Deportivo Laferrere1.1

Real Pilar1.2

COMBINED 2.4 xG → O2.5 PROB 50.5% · O3.5 PROB 28.7%

Form & verdict PPG

DEPORTIVO LAFERRERE · PPG 1.25

REAL PILAR · PPG 1.62

⚖ HIGH DRAW RISK - evenly matched, low-scoring expected

65%

HIGH_DRAW_RISK

xG gap -0.09, combined xG 2.37 - evenly matched, low-scoring, elevated Draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Deportivo Laferrere (H) 34.2%

ODDS 2.50 · IMPLIED 40.0% EV -14.5%

Draw 27.0%

ODDS 2.70 · IMPLIED 37.0% EV -16.3%

Real Pilar (A) 38.8%

ODDS 2.90 · IMPLIED 34.5% EV +12.5%

Match Preview & Prediction

Deportivo Laferrere face Real Pilar in Argentina - Primera B Metropolitana on Saturday, August 29, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Deportivo Laferrere a 34% chance, the draw 27% and Real Pilar 39%, so Real Pilar are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.1 for Deportivo Laferrere and 1.2 for Real Pilar (2.4 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 51% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 53% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Deportivo Laferrere are averaging 1.25 points per game versus 1.62 for Real Pilar. The best value bet our model finds is over 2.5 goals, with an expected value of +26.3%. This match finished 1-1.

Deportivo Laferrere vs Real Pilar Prediction— Argentina - Primera B Metropolitana

Match Preview & Prediction

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