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Brown DE Adrogue vs Liniers Prediction— Argentina - Primera B Metropolitana

Matchday 33 ·Saturday, August 29, 2026, 18:00

Brown DE Adrogue

PPG 1.06 · HOME

LAST 5

WLDLD

1 – 1

FULL TIME

Liniers

PPG 1.06 · AWAY

LAST 5

WLLWD

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-018.7%0-115.7%0-26.6%0-31.8%0-4+0.5%1 1-015.7%1-113.1%1-25.5%1-31.5%1-4+0.4%2 2-06.5%2-15.5%2-22.3%2-30.6%2-4+0.2%3 3-01.8%3-11.5%3-20.6%3-30.2%3-4+0.0%4+ 4+-00.5%4+-10.4%4+-20.2%4+-30.0%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 31.7% 45.5% 2.20 -30.3%

Draw 32.5% 35.7% 2.80 -9.0%

Away win 35.7% 30.3% 3.30 +17.8%

Over 2.5 34.2% 38.2% 2.62 -10.4%

Over 3.5 18.0% 22.2% 4.50 -11.4%

BTTS 43.7% 45.5% 2.20 -3.9%

Home O1.5 30.9% 36.4% 2.75 -15.0%

Away O1.5 23.6% 26.7% 3.75 -6.9%

League track record ↗

Based on 173 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 41%

O2.5 72%

BTTS 65%

Score Hit 68%

ROI 17.6%

Bet Hit 55%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 1 52%CONFIDENCE

✓ HIT — EXACT SCORE

xG (home)0.8 xG (away)0.8 BTTS prob43.7%

D 32% / xG 0.8-0.8 / U2.5 34% / NoBTTS 44%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–0 18.7%

#2 0–1 15.7%

#3 1–0 15.7%

#4 1–1✓ 13.1%

#5 0–2 6.6%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Brown DE Adrogue0.8

Liniers0.8

COMBINED 1.7 xG → O2.5 PROB 34.2% · O3.5 PROB 18.0%

Form & verdict PPG

BROWN DE ADROGUE · PPG 1.06

LINIERS · PPG 1.06

⚖ HIGH DRAW RISK - evenly matched, low-scoring expected

65%

HIGH_DRAW_RISK

xG gap -0.00, combined xG 1.67 - evenly matched, low-scoring, elevated Draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Brown DE Adrogue (H) 31.7%

ODDS 2.20 · IMPLIED 45.5% EV -30.3%

Draw 32.5%

ODDS 2.80 · IMPLIED 35.7% EV -9.0%

Liniers (A) 35.7%

ODDS 3.30 · IMPLIED 30.3% EV +17.8%

Match Preview & Prediction

Brown DE Adrogue face Liniers in Argentina - Primera B Metropolitana on Saturday, August 29, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Brown DE Adrogue a 32% chance, the draw 33% and Liniers 36%, so Liniers are favoured to win. Expected goals are 0.8 for Brown DE Adrogue and 0.8 for Liniers (1.7 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-0. There is a 34% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 44% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Brown DE Adrogue are averaging 1.06 points per game versus 1.06 for Liniers. The best value bet our model finds is A/BTTS, with an expected value of +1.2%. This match finished 1-1.

Brown DE Adrogue vs Liniers Prediction— Argentina - Primera B Metropolitana

Match Preview & Prediction

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