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Chrobry Głogów vs Ruch Chorzów Prediction— Poland - I Liga

Matchday 6 ·Sunday, August 30, 2026, 15:15

Chrobry Głogów

PPG 1.15 · HOME

LAST 5

LWDLW

2 – 0

FULL TIME

Ruch Chorzów

PPG 1.35 · AWAY

LAST 5

LDWWL

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-09.4%0-19.0%0-24.3%0-31.4%0-4+0.4%1 1-013.2%1-112.7%1-26.1%1-31.9%1-4+0.6%2 2-09.3%2-18.9%2-24.3%2-31.4%2-4+0.4%3 3-04.4%3-14.2%3-22.0%3-30.6%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-02.1%4+-12.0%4+-21.0%4+-30.3%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 44.2% 33.3% 3.00 +32.6%

Draw 26.8% 33.3% 3.00 -11.8%

Away win 28.9% 45.5% 2.20 -21.9%

Over 2.5 46.8% 52.6% 1.90 -11.1%

Over 3.5 27.9% 30.8% 3.25 -5.6%

BTTS 49.5% 59.9% 1.67 -17.3%

Home O1.5 40.1% 38.2% 2.62 +5.1%

Away O1.5 25.7% 47.6% 2.10 -27.6%

League track record ↗

Based on 66 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 50%

O2.5 55%

BTTS 55%

Score Hit 52%

ROI -10.9%

Bet Hit 50%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 24%CONFIDENCE

✓ HIT — EXACT SCORE

xG (home)1.4 xG (away)1.0 BTTS prob49.5%

H 44% / xG 1.4-1.0 / U2.5 47% / NoBTTS 50%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.7%

#2 1–0 13.2%

#3 0–0 9.4%

#4 2–0✓ 9.3%

#5 2–1 8.9%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Chrobry Głogów1.4

Ruch Chorzów1.0

COMBINED 2.4 xG → O2.5 PROB 46.8% · O3.5 PROB 27.9%

Form & verdict PPG

CHROBRY GŁOGÓW · PPG 1.15

RUCH CHORZÓW · PPG 1.35

⚖ HIGH DRAW RISK - evenly matched, low-scoring expected

65%

HIGH_DRAW_RISK

xG gap +0.45, combined xG 2.37 - evenly matched, low-scoring, elevated Draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Chrobry Głogów (H) 44.2%

ODDS 3.00 · IMPLIED 33.3% EV +32.6%

Draw 26.8%

ODDS 3.00 · IMPLIED 33.3% EV -11.8%

Ruch Chorzów (A) 28.9%

ODDS 2.20 · IMPLIED 45.5% EV -21.9%

Match Preview & Prediction

Chrobry Głogów face Ruch Chorzów in Poland - I Liga on Sunday, August 30, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Chrobry Głogów a 44% chance, the draw 27% and Ruch Chorzów 29%, so Chrobry Głogów are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.4 for Chrobry Głogów and 1.0 for Ruch Chorzów (2.4 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 47% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 50% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Chrobry Głogów are averaging 1.15 points per game versus 1.35 for Ruch Chorzów. The best value bet our model finds is RES_H/O15, with an expected value of +31.3%. This match finished 2-0.

Chrobry Głogów vs Ruch Chorzów Prediction— Poland - I Liga

Match Preview & Prediction

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