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AFC Wimbledon vs Stockport Prediction— England - League One

Wednesday, April 15, 2026

AFC Wimbledon

PPG 1.40 · HOME

0 – 2

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · BTTS

Stockport

PPG 1.35 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 62.4% vs bookmaker-implied 59.9% — a real, if thin, edge.

+4.2% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-04.4%0-16.8%0-25.3%0-32.7%0-4+1.5%1 1-07.0%1-110.7%1-28.3%1-34.3%1-4+2.3%2 2-05.5%2-18.5%2-26.5%2-33.4%2-4+1.8%3 3-02.9%3-14.4%3-23.4%3-31.8%3-4+1.0%4+ 4+-01.6%4+-12.5%4+-21.9%4+-31.0%4+-4+0.5%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 38.7% 25.6% 3.90 +50.9%

Draw 23.8% 28.6% 3.50 -16.7%

Away win 37.5% 52.6% 1.90 -28.7%

Over 2.5 60.3% 54.6% 1.83 +10.3%

Over 3.5 37.9% 32.3% 3.10 +17.5%

BTTS 62.4% 59.9% 1.67 +4.2%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 51 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 35%

O2.5 51%

BTTS 53%

Score Hit 37%

ROI -13.9%

Bet Hit 55%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 47%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-2

xG (home)1.6 xG (away)1.5 BTTS prob62.4%

H 39% / xG 1.6-1.5 / O2.5 60% / BTTS 62%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 10.7%

#2 2–1 8.5%

#3 1–2 8.3%

#4 1–0 7.0%

#5 0–1 6.8%

Expected goals MODEL xG

AFC Wimbledon1.6

Stockport1.5

COMBINED 3.1 xG → O2.5 PROB 60.3% · O3.5 PROB 37.9%

Form & verdict PPG

AFC WIMBLEDON · PPG 1.40

STOCKPORT · PPG 1.35

✓ INTERESTING - Balanced match with high-value opportunity

70%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home AVERAGE (1.40), Away AVERAGE (1.35)

Win probability 1X2

AFC Wimbledon (H) 38.7%

ODDS 3.90 · IMPLIED 25.6% EV +50.9%

Draw 23.8%

ODDS 3.50 · IMPLIED 28.6% EV -16.7%

Stockport (A) 37.5%

ODDS 1.90 · IMPLIED 52.6% EV -28.7%

Match Preview & Prediction

AFC Wimbledon face Stockport in England - League One on Wednesday, April 15, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives AFC Wimbledon a 39% chance, the draw 24% and Stockport 38%, so AFC Wimbledon are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.6 for AFC Wimbledon and 1.5 for Stockport (3.1 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 60% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 62% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, AFC Wimbledon are averaging 1.40 points per game versus 1.35 for Stockport. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +50.9%. This match finished 0-2.

AFC Wimbledon vs Stockport Prediction— England - League One

Match Preview & Prediction

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