Alemannia A. vs MSV Duisburg Prediction— Germany - 3. Liga

Germany - 3. Liga Regular Season - 35 New Tivoli· Aachen Friday, April 24, 2026 17:00

Alemannia A. PPG 1.38

3-1 MISS

MSV Duisburg PPG 1.18

Over3.5· +44.7% ✓ INTERESTING - Balanced match with high-value opportunity

70% confidence

Match Preview & Prediction

Alemannia A. face MSV Duisburg in Germany - 3. Liga on Friday, April 24, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Alemannia A. a 38% chance, the draw 22% and MSV Duisburg 40%, so MSV Duisburg are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.8 for Alemannia A. and 1.9 for MSV Duisburg (3.7 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 71% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 71% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Alemannia A. are averaging 1.38 points per game versus 1.18 for MSV Duisburg. The best value bet our model finds is over 3.5 goals, with an expected value of +44.7%. This match finished 3-1.

Match Result (1X2)

Home 38.4%

Odds: 2.15 EV: -17.4%

Draw 21.7%

Odds: 3.50 EV: -24.1%

Away 39.9%

Odds: 3.20 EV: +27.7%

Model lean: Over 2.5

Result: Home ✘

Goals Markets

Over 2.5 70.9% Odds: 1.77 +25.5%

Over 3.5 49.9% Odds: 2.90 +44.7%

BTTS 70.6% Odds: 1.60 +13.0%

O2.5 OVER → OVER ✔ BTTS YES → YES ✔

Correct Score Picks

1st 1-1 ✘

2nd 1-2 ✘

3rd 2-1 ✘

4th 2-2 ✘

5th 1-3 ✘

Expected Goals (xG)

Alemannia A.

1.81

MSV Duisburg

1.85

Model SuggestionOver 2.5 +25.5% ROI TRACKS: Over 2.5
Tracked ROI market: Over 2.5. 
Raw EV leader: Over3.5(+44.7%)

League Track Record ↗

Based on 46 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 63%

O2.5/Under 70%

BTTS/No 65%

Score Hit 30%

ROI 12.3%

Bet Hit 67% (12 bets)

Verdict & Form

✓ INTERESTING - Balanced match with high-value opportunity

70%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home AVERAGE (1.38), Away AVERAGE (1.18)