Today / Germany - 3. Liga / Alemannia A. vs MSV Duisburg

Alemannia A. vs MSV Duisburg Prediction— Germany - 3. Liga

Regular Season - 35 ·Friday, April 24, 2026, 17:00

Alemannia A.

PPG 1.38 · HOME

3 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O2.5

MSV Duisburg

PPG 1.18 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.7 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 70.9% vs bookmaker-implied 56.5% — a clear edge.

+25.5% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-02.6%0-14.7%0-24.4%0-32.7%0-4+1.9%1 1-04.6%1-18.6%1-28.0%1-34.9%1-4+3.5%2 2-04.2%2-17.8%2-27.2%2-34.5%2-4+3.1%3 3-02.5%3-14.7%3-24.4%3-32.7%3-4+1.9%4+ 4+-01.7%4+-13.2%4+-23.0%4+-31.8%4+-4+1.3%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 38.4% 46.5% 2.15 -17.4%

Draw 21.7% 28.6% 3.50 -24.1%

Away win 39.9% 31.3% 3.20 +27.7%

Over 2.5 70.9% 56.5% 1.77 +25.5%

Over 3.5 49.9% 34.5% 2.90 +44.7%

BTTS 70.6% 62.5% 1.60 +13.0%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 46 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 63%

O2.5 70%

BTTS 65%

Score Hit 30%

ROI 4.5%

Bet Hit 70%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 3 54%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 3-1

xG (home)1.8 xG (away)1.9 BTTS prob70.6%

A 40% / xG 1.8-1.9 / O2.5 71% / BTTS 71%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 8.6%

#2 1–2 8.0%

#3 2–1 7.8%

#4 2–2 7.2%

#5 1–3 4.9%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Alemannia A.1.8

MSV Duisburg1.9

COMBINED 3.7 xG → O2.5 PROB 70.9% · O3.5 PROB 49.9%

Form & verdict PPG

ALEMANNIA A. · PPG 1.38

MSV DUISBURG · PPG 1.18

✓ INTERESTING - Balanced match with high-value opportunity

70%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home AVERAGE (1.38), Away AVERAGE (1.18)

Win probability 1X2

Alemannia A. (H) 38.4%

ODDS 2.15 · IMPLIED 46.5% EV -17.4%

Draw 21.7%

ODDS 3.50 · IMPLIED 28.6% EV -24.1%

MSV Duisburg (A) 39.9%

ODDS 3.20 · IMPLIED 31.3% EV +27.7%

Match Preview & Prediction

Alemannia A. face MSV Duisburg in Germany - 3. Liga on Friday, April 24, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Alemannia A. a 38% chance, the draw 22% and MSV Duisburg 40%, so MSV Duisburg are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.8 for Alemannia A. and 1.9 for MSV Duisburg (3.7 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 71% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 71% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Alemannia A. are averaging 1.38 points per game versus 1.18 for MSV Duisburg. The best value bet our model finds is over 3.5 goals, with an expected value of +44.7%. This match finished 3-1.

Alemannia A. vs MSV Duisburg Prediction— Germany - 3. Liga

Match Preview & Prediction

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