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Nõmme United II vs Elva Prediction— Estonia - Esiliiga A

Matchday 26 ·Sunday, August 30, 2026, 12:00

Nõmme United II

PPG 1.25 · HOME

LAST 5

LWDLL

0 – 1

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · BTTS

Elva

PPG 1.33 · AWAY

LAST 5

WLWDW

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 63.1% vs bookmaker-implied 75.2%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-02.1%0-14.5%0-24.7%0-33.3%0-4+2.8%1 1-03.7%1-17.8%1-28.2%1-35.8%1-4+5.0%2 2-03.2%2-16.8%2-27.2%2-35.0%2-4+4.3%3 3-01.9%3-14.0%3-24.2%3-32.9%3-4+2.5%4+ 4+-01.2%4+-12.6%4+-22.7%4+-31.9%4+-4+1.6%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 34.7% 40.8% 2.45 -15.0%

Draw 22.3% 26.7% 3.75 -9.8%

Away win 43.0% 44.4% 2.25 -3.3%

Over 2.5 64.2% 75.2% 1.33 -14.6%

Over 3.5 44.0% 57.8% 1.73 -23.9%

BTTS 63.1% 75.2% 1.33 -16.1%

Home O1.5 48.9% 59.9% 1.67 -18.3%

Away O1.5 59.3% 69.0% 1.45 -14.0%

League track record ↗

Based on 32 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 63%

O2.5 69%

BTTS 56%

Score Hit 25%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 3 57%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-1

xG (home)1.7 xG (away)2.1 BTTS prob63.1%

A 43% / xG 1.7-2.1 / O2.5 64% / BTTS 63%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 7.8%

#2 1–2 8.2%

#3 2–1 6.8%

#4 2–2 7.2%

#5 1–3 5.8%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Nõmme United II1.7

Elva2.1

COMBINED 3.9 xG → O2.5 PROB 64.2% · O3.5 PROB 44.0%

Form & verdict PPG

NÕMME UNITED II · PPG 1.25

ELVA · PPG 1.33

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value | No clear value

42%

BALANCED

xG gap -0.36 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Nõmme United II (H) 34.7%

ODDS 2.45 · IMPLIED 40.8% EV -15.0%

Draw 22.3%

ODDS 3.75 · IMPLIED 26.7% EV -9.8%

Elva (A) 43.0%

ODDS 2.25 · IMPLIED 44.4% EV -3.3%

Match Preview & Prediction

Nõmme United II face Elva in Estonia - Esiliiga A on Sunday, August 30, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Nõmme United II a 35% chance, the draw 22% and Elva 43%, so Elva are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.7 for Nõmme United II and 2.1 for Elva (3.9 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 64% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 63% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Nõmme United II are averaging 1.25 points per game versus 1.33 for Elva. The best value bet our model finds is TT_AwayO25, with an expected value of +9.4%. This match finished 0-1.

Nõmme United II vs Elva Prediction— Estonia - Esiliiga A

Match Preview & Prediction

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