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Nõmme Kalju II vs Tartu Welco Prediction— Estonia - Esiliiga A

Matchday 25 ·Sunday, August 23, 2026, 12:00

Nõmme Kalju II

PPG 0.92 · HOME

LAST 5

LLLLW

2 – 4

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · AWAY O1.5

Tartu Welco

PPG 2.00 · AWAY

LAST 5

LWWWL

// Model verdict

Away Over 1.5

Model probability 80.0% vs bookmaker-implied 86.2%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-01.3%0-14.1%0-26.6%0-37.2%0-4+13.3%1 1-01.4%1-14.6%1-27.5%1-38.1%1-4+15.0%2 2-00.8%2-12.6%2-24.2%2-34.5%2-4+8.4%3 3-00.3%3-11.0%3-21.6%3-31.7%3-4+3.1%4+ 4+-00.1%4+-10.3%4+-20.6%4+-30.6%4+-4+1.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 13.8% 9.1% 11.00 +31.1%

Draw 16.4% 14.8% 6.75 +6.4%

Away win 69.8% 88.5% 1.13 -21.1%

Over 2.5 71.1% 85.5% 1.17 -16.8%

Over 3.5 48.1% 72.5% 1.38 -33.6%

BTTS 61.3% 66.7% 1.50 -8.1%

Home O1.5 30.6% 42.0% 2.38 -27.2%

Away O1.5 80.0% 86.2% 1.16 -7.2%

League track record ↗

Based on 32 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 63%

O2.5 69%

BTTS 56%

Score Hit 25%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 4 70%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-4

xG (home)1.1 xG (away)3.3 BTTS prob61.3%

A 70% / xG 1.1-3.3 / O2.5 71% / BTTS 61%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–3 8.1%

#2 1–2 7.5%

#3 0–3 7.2%

#4 1–1 4.6%

#5 0–2 6.6%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Nõmme Kalju II1.1

Tartu Welco3.3

COMBINED 4.4 xG → O2.5 PROB 71.1% · O3.5 PROB 48.1%

Form & verdict PPG

NÕMME KALJU II · PPG 0.92

TARTU WELCO · PPG 2.00

✓ SOLID - Away team showing momentum

90%

UPSET_VALUE

xG gap -2.13 for Away, form 0.92 vs 2.00

Win probability 1X2

Nõmme Kalju II (H) 13.8%

ODDS 11.00 · IMPLIED 9.1% EV +31.1%

Draw 16.4%

ODDS 6.75 · IMPLIED 14.8% EV +6.4%

Tartu Welco (A) 69.8%

ODDS 1.13 · IMPLIED 88.5% EV -21.1%

Match Preview & Prediction

Nõmme Kalju II face Tartu Welco in Estonia - Esiliiga A on Sunday, August 23, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Nõmme Kalju II a 14% chance, the draw 16% and Tartu Welco 70%, so Tartu Welco are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.1 for Nõmme Kalju II and 3.3 for Tartu Welco (4.4 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-3. There is a 71% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 61% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Nõmme Kalju II are averaging 0.92 points per game versus 2.00 for Tartu Welco. The best value bet our model finds is H/O25, with an expected value of +41.7%. This match finished 2-4.

Nõmme Kalju II vs Tartu Welco Prediction— Estonia - Esiliiga A

Match Preview & Prediction

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