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Elva vs Flora II Prediction— Estonia - Esiliiga A

Matchday 25 ·Monday, August 24, 2026, 16:00

Elva

PPG 1.75 · HOME

LAST 5

WLWDW

0 – 0

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · O2.5

Flora II

PPG 1.50 · AWAY

LAST 5

WLWDW

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.6 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 63.9% vs bookmaker-implied 76.9%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-02.7%0-15.0%0-24.7%0-32.9%0-4+2.1%1 1-04.7%1-18.8%1-28.2%1-35.1%1-4+3.6%2 2-04.1%2-17.7%2-27.2%2-34.5%2-4+3.2%3 3-02.4%3-14.5%3-24.2%3-32.6%3-4+1.9%4+ 4+-01.6%4+-12.9%4+-22.7%4+-31.7%4+-4+1.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 35.3% 47.6% 2.10 -25.9%

Draw 22.8% 25.0% 4.00 -5.3%

Away win 41.9% 38.5% 2.60 +8.9%

Over 2.5 63.9% 76.9% 1.30 -16.9%

Over 3.5 43.2% 66.7% 1.50 -35.2%

BTTS 63.1% 77.5% 1.29 -18.6%

Home O1.5 48.9% 70.9% 1.41 -31.1%

Away O1.5 56.9% 63.3% 1.58 -10.1%

League track record ↗

Based on 32 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 63%

O2.5 69%

BTTS 56%

Score Hit 25%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 3 51%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-0

xG (home)1.8 xG (away)1.9 BTTS prob63.1%

A 42% / xG 1.8-1.9 / O2.5 64% / BTTS 63%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 8.8%

#2 1–2 8.2%

#3 2–1 7.7%

#4 2–2 7.2%

#5 1–3 5.1%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Elva1.8

Flora II1.9

COMBINED 3.6 xG → O2.5 PROB 63.9% · O3.5 PROB 43.2%

Form & verdict PPG

ELVA · PPG 1.75

FLORA II · PPG 1.50

✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value

60%

BALANCED

xG gap -0.12 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Elva (H) 35.3%

ODDS 2.10 · IMPLIED 47.6% EV -25.9%

Draw 22.8%

ODDS 4.00 · IMPLIED 25.0% EV -5.3%

Flora II (A) 41.9%

ODDS 2.60 · IMPLIED 38.5% EV +8.9%

Match Preview & Prediction

Elva face Flora II in Estonia - Esiliiga A on Monday, August 24, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Elva a 35% chance, the draw 23% and Flora II 42%, so Flora II are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.8 for Elva and 1.9 for Flora II (3.6 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 64% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 63% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Elva are averaging 1.75 points per game versus 1.50 for Flora II. This match finished 0-0.

Elva vs Flora II Prediction— Estonia - Esiliiga A

Match Preview & Prediction

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