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Tartu Welco vs Viimsi Prediction— Estonia - Esiliiga A

Matchday 26 ·Saturday, August 29, 2026, 16:00

Tartu Welco

PPG 2.25 · HOME

LAST 5

LWWWL

1 – 3

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O2.5

Viimsi

PPG 1.71 · AWAY

LAST 5

WWLWW

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.2 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 64.2% vs bookmaker-implied 69.4%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-03.9%0-15.4%0-23.8%0-31.8%0-4+0.8%1 1-07.2%1-110.0%1-27.0%1-33.2%1-4+1.5%2 2-06.7%2-19.3%2-26.5%2-33.0%2-4+1.4%3 3-04.1%3-15.8%3-24.0%3-31.9%3-4+0.9%4+ 4+-02.9%4+-14.1%4+-22.8%4+-31.3%4+-4+0.6%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 47.1% 50.0% 2.00 -5.8%

Draw 23.2% 25.0% 4.00 -4.3%

Away win 29.7% 36.4% 2.75 -11.0%

Over 2.5 64.2% 69.4% 1.44 -7.5%

Over 3.5 43.2% 53.2% 1.88 -18.8%

BTTS 63.1% 71.4% 1.40 -11.7%

Home O1.5 56.3% 66.7% 1.50 -15.6%

Away O1.5 40.9% 50.0% 2.00 -18.2%

League track record ↗

Based on 32 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 63%

O2.5 69%

BTTS 56%

Score Hit 25%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 49%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-3

xG (home)1.9 xG (away)1.4 BTTS prob63.1%

H 47% / xG 1.9-1.4 / O2.5 64% / BTTS 63%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 10.0%

#2 2–1 9.3%

#3 1–2 7.0%

#4 2–0 6.7%

#5 2–2 6.5%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Tartu Welco1.9

Viimsi1.4

COMBINED 3.2 xG → O2.5 PROB 64.2% · O3.5 PROB 43.2%

Form & verdict PPG

TARTU WELCO · PPG 2.25

VIIMSI · PPG 1.71

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value | No clear value

42%

BALANCED

xG gap +0.46 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Tartu Welco (H) 47.1%

ODDS 2.00 · IMPLIED 50.0% EV -5.8%

Draw 23.2%

ODDS 4.00 · IMPLIED 25.0% EV -4.3%

Viimsi (A) 29.7%

ODDS 2.75 · IMPLIED 36.4% EV -11.0%

Match Preview & Prediction

Tartu Welco face Viimsi in Estonia - Esiliiga A on Saturday, August 29, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Tartu Welco a 47% chance, the draw 23% and Viimsi 30%, so Tartu Welco are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.9 for Tartu Welco and 1.4 for Viimsi (3.2 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 64% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 63% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Tartu Welco are averaging 2.25 points per game versus 1.71 for Viimsi. This match finished 1-3.

Tartu Welco vs Viimsi Prediction— Estonia - Esiliiga A

Match Preview & Prediction

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