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Flora II vs Tallinna Kalev Prediction— Estonia - Esiliiga A

Matchday 26 ·Saturday, August 29, 2026, 09:30

Flora II

PPG 1.83 · HOME

LAST 5

WLWDW

5 – 0

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O2.5

Tallinna Kalev

PPG 1.17 · AWAY

LAST 5

DWWLL

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 4.0 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 68.2% vs bookmaker-implied 78.1%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-01.9%0-13.1%0-22.5%0-31.4%0-4+0.8%1 1-04.4%1-17.2%1-25.9%1-33.2%1-4+1.9%2 2-05.1%2-18.4%2-26.9%2-33.8%2-4+2.2%3 3-04.0%3-16.5%3-25.4%3-32.9%3-4+1.7%4+ 4+-04.0%4+-16.6%4+-25.4%4+-33.0%4+-4+1.8%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 49.2% 51.3% 1.95 -4.1%

Draw 21.9% 23.8% 4.20 -4.8%

Away win 28.9% 36.4% 2.75 -12.3%

Over 2.5 68.2% 78.1% 1.28 -12.7%

Over 3.5 45.0% 68.0% 1.47 -33.9%

BTTS 63.1% 80.0% 1.25 -21.1%

Home O1.5 65.8% 66.7% 1.50 -1.3%

Away O1.5 47.9% 64.1% 1.56 -25.3%

League track record ↗

Based on 32 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 63%

O2.5 69%

BTTS 56%

Score Hit 25%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 65%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 5-0

xG (home)2.3 xG (away)1.6 BTTS prob63.1%

H 49% / xG 2.3-1.6 / O2.5 68% / BTTS 63%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 7.2%

#2 2–1 8.4%

#3 2–2 6.9%

#4 1–2 5.9%

#5 3–1 6.5%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Flora II2.3

Tallinna Kalev1.6

COMBINED 4.0 xG → O2.5 PROB 68.2% · O3.5 PROB 45.0%

Form & verdict PPG

FLORA II · PPG 1.83

TALLINNA KALEV · PPG 1.17

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

52%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.70 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Flora II (H) 49.2%

ODDS 1.95 · IMPLIED 51.3% EV -4.1%

Draw 21.9%

ODDS 4.20 · IMPLIED 23.8% EV -4.8%

Tallinna Kalev (A) 28.9%

ODDS 2.75 · IMPLIED 36.4% EV -12.3%

Match Preview & Prediction

Flora II face Tallinna Kalev in Estonia - Esiliiga A on Saturday, August 29, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Flora II a 49% chance, the draw 22% and Tallinna Kalev 29%, so Flora II are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.3 for Flora II and 1.6 for Tallinna Kalev (4.0 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 68% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 63% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Flora II are averaging 1.83 points per game versus 1.17 for Tallinna Kalev. This match finished 5-0.

Flora II vs Tallinna Kalev Prediction— Estonia - Esiliiga A

Match Preview & Prediction

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