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Viimsi vs Nõmme United II Prediction— Estonia - Esiliiga A

Matchday 25 ·Monday, August 24, 2026, 16:00

Viimsi

PPG 1.70 · HOME

LAST 5

WWLWW

4 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · HOME O1.5

Nõmme United II

PPG 1.00 · AWAY

LAST 5

LWDLL

// Model verdict

Home Over 1.5

Model probability 65.8% vs bookmaker-implied 74.6%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-02.9%0-13.3%0-21.9%0-30.7%0-4+0.3%1 1-07.0%1-17.9%1-24.5%1-31.7%1-4+0.6%2 2-08.4%2-19.5%2-25.4%2-32.0%2-4+0.7%3 3-06.7%3-17.6%3-24.3%3-31.6%3-4+0.6%4+ 4+-07.1%4+-18.1%4+-24.6%4+-31.7%4+-4+0.6%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 57.2% 69.4% 1.44 -17.6%

Draw 21.1% 21.1% 4.75 +0.1%

Away win 21.7% 21.1% 4.75 +1.8%

Over 2.5 64.2% 75.2% 1.33 -14.6%

Over 3.5 43.2% 61.0% 1.64 -29.1%

BTTS 60.8% 73.5% 1.36 -17.3%

Home O1.5 65.8% 74.6% 1.34 -11.8%

Away O1.5 33.0% 42.0% 2.38 -21.5%

League track record ↗

Based on 32 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 63%

O2.5 69%

BTTS 56%

Score Hit 25%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 59%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 4-1

xG (home)2.4 xG (away)1.1 BTTS prob60.8%

H 57% / xG 2.4-1.1 / O2.5 64% / BTTS 61%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 7.9%

#2 2–1 9.5%

#3 2–0 8.4%

#4 3–1 7.6%

#5 1–2 4.5%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Viimsi2.4

Nõmme United II1.1

COMBINED 3.5 xG → O2.5 PROB 64.2% · O3.5 PROB 43.2%

Form & verdict PPG

VIIMSI · PPG 1.70

NÕMME UNITED II · PPG 1.00

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +1.27 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Viimsi (H) 57.2%

ODDS 1.44 · IMPLIED 69.4% EV -17.6%

Draw 21.1%

ODDS 4.75 · IMPLIED 21.1% EV +0.1%

Nõmme United II (A) 21.7%

ODDS 4.75 · IMPLIED 21.1% EV +1.8%

Match Preview & Prediction

Viimsi face Nõmme United II in Estonia - Esiliiga A on Monday, August 24, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Viimsi a 57% chance, the draw 21% and Nõmme United II 22%, so Viimsi are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.4 for Viimsi and 1.1 for Nõmme United II (3.5 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 64% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 61% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Viimsi are averaging 1.70 points per game versus 1.00 for Nõmme United II. This match finished 4-1.

Viimsi vs Nõmme United II Prediction— Estonia - Esiliiga A

Match Preview & Prediction

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