Today / Estonia - Esiliiga A / Tallinna Kalev vs Maardu

Tallinna Kalev vs Maardu Prediction— Estonia - Esiliiga A

Matchday 25 ·Monday, August 24, 2026, 16:00

Tallinna Kalev

PPG 1.75 · HOME

LAST 5

DWWLL

1 – 3

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · HOME O1.5

Maardu

PPG 1.00 · AWAY

LAST 5

LWLWW

// Model verdict

Home Over 1.5

Model probability 65.8% vs bookmaker-implied 69.9%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-01.9%0-12.7%0-21.9%0-30.9%0-4+0.5%1 1-04.8%1-16.9%1-24.9%1-32.4%1-4+1.2%2 2-06.0%2-18.7%2-26.2%2-33.0%2-4+1.5%3 3-05.1%3-17.4%3-25.3%3-32.5%3-4+1.2%4+ 4+-05.9%4+-18.5%4+-26.1%4+-32.9%4+-4+1.5%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 55.8% 55.6% 1.80 +0.4%

Draw 21.8% 23.8% 4.20 -5.1%

Away win 22.4% 32.3% 3.10 -18.3%

Over 2.5 65.1% 76.9% 1.30 -15.4%

Over 3.5 45.0% 66.7% 1.50 -32.5%

BTTS 62.0% 80.0% 1.25 -22.5%

Home O1.5 65.8% 69.9% 1.43 -5.9%

Away O1.5 40.9% 61.3% 1.63 -33.3%

League track record ↗

Based on 32 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 63%

O2.5 69%

BTTS 56%

Score Hit 25%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 68%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-3

xG (home)2.5 xG (away)1.4 BTTS prob62.0%

H 56% / xG 2.5-1.4 / O2.5 65% / BTTS 62%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 6.9%

#2 2–1 8.7%

#3 3–1 7.4%

#4 2–2 6.2%

#5 1–2 4.9%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Tallinna Kalev2.5

Maardu1.4

COMBINED 4.0 xG → O2.5 PROB 65.1% · O3.5 PROB 45.0%

Form & verdict PPG

TALLINNA KALEV · PPG 1.75

MAARDU · PPG 1.00

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +1.10 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Tallinna Kalev (H) 55.8%

ODDS 1.80 · IMPLIED 55.6% EV +0.4%

Draw 21.8%

ODDS 4.20 · IMPLIED 23.8% EV -5.1%

Maardu (A) 22.4%

ODDS 3.10 · IMPLIED 32.3% EV -18.3%

Match Preview & Prediction

Tallinna Kalev face Maardu in Estonia - Esiliiga A on Monday, August 24, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Tallinna Kalev a 56% chance, the draw 22% and Maardu 22%, so Tallinna Kalev are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.5 for Tallinna Kalev and 1.4 for Maardu (4.0 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 65% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 62% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Tallinna Kalev are averaging 1.75 points per game versus 1.00 for Maardu. This match finished 1-3.

Tallinna Kalev vs Maardu Prediction— Estonia - Esiliiga A

Match Preview & Prediction

More Estonia - Esiliiga A Predictions