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Maardu vs FCI Levadia II Prediction— Estonia - Esiliiga A

Matchday 26 ·Saturday, August 29, 2026, 09:30

Maardu

PPG 1.67 · HOME

LAST 5

LWLWW

4 – 2

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O2.5

FCI Levadia II

PPG 1.09 · AWAY

LAST 5

WLLWL

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.7 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 68.2% vs bookmaker-implied 76.9%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-02.5%0-14.7%0-24.3%0-32.6%0-4+1.8%1 1-04.7%1-18.6%1-27.9%1-34.8%1-4+3.4%2 2-04.3%2-17.9%2-27.2%2-34.4%2-4+3.1%3 3-02.6%3-14.8%3-24.4%3-32.7%3-4+1.9%4+ 4+-01.8%4+-13.4%4+-23.1%4+-31.9%4+-4+1.3%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 43.8% 47.6% 2.10 -8.0%

Draw 21.7% 25.0% 4.00 -7.9%

Away win 34.5% 38.5% 2.60 -10.3%

Over 2.5 68.2% 76.9% 1.30 -11.3%

Over 3.5 45.0% 61.0% 1.64 -26.2%

BTTS 63.1% 80.0% 1.25 -21.1%

Home O1.5 54.4% 63.7% 1.57 -14.6%

Away O1.5 54.6% 63.3% 1.58 -13.7%

League track record ↗

Based on 32 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 63%

O2.5 69%

BTTS 56%

Score Hit 25%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 55%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 4-2

xG (home)1.8 xG (away)1.8 BTTS prob63.1%

H 44% / xG 1.8-1.8 / O2.5 68% / BTTS 63%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–1 7.9%

#2 1–1 8.6%

#3 1–2 7.9%

#4 2–2 7.2%

#5 3–1 4.8%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Maardu1.8

FCI Levadia II1.8

COMBINED 3.7 xG → O2.5 PROB 68.2% · O3.5 PROB 45.0%

Form & verdict PPG

MAARDU · PPG 1.67

FCI LEVADIA II · PPG 1.09

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value | No clear value

42%

BALANCED

xG gap +0.00 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Maardu (H) 43.8%

ODDS 2.10 · IMPLIED 47.6% EV -8.0%

Draw 21.7%

ODDS 4.00 · IMPLIED 25.0% EV -7.9%

FCI Levadia II (A) 34.5%

ODDS 2.60 · IMPLIED 38.5% EV -10.3%

Match Preview & Prediction

Maardu face FCI Levadia II in Estonia - Esiliiga A on Saturday, August 29, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Maardu a 44% chance, the draw 22% and FCI Levadia II 35%, so Maardu are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.8 for Maardu and 1.8 for FCI Levadia II (3.7 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-1. There is a 68% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 63% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Maardu are averaging 1.67 points per game versus 1.09 for FCI Levadia II. This match finished 4-2.

Maardu vs FCI Levadia II Prediction— Estonia - Esiliiga A

Match Preview & Prediction

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