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FCI Levadia II vs FC Tallinn Prediction— Estonia - Esiliiga A

Matchday 25 ·Sunday, August 23, 2026, 10:00

FCI Levadia II

PPG 1.46 · HOME

LAST 5

WLLWL

2 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · HOME O1.5

FC Tallinn

PPG 0.75 · AWAY

LAST 5

DLDLL

// Model verdict

Home Over 1.5

Model probability 65.1% vs bookmaker-implied 71.9%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-02.7%0-13.3%0-22.0%0-30.8%0-4+0.3%1 1-06.4%1-17.9%1-24.8%1-32.0%1-4+0.8%2 2-07.7%2-19.4%2-25.8%2-32.3%2-4+0.9%3 3-06.1%3-17.5%3-24.6%3-31.9%3-4+0.7%4+ 4+-06.5%4+-17.9%4+-24.8%4+-32.0%4+-4+0.8%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 53.3% 61.0% 1.64 -12.6%

Draw 22.1% 24.4% 4.10 -5.6%

Away win 24.7% 26.7% 3.75 -4.4%

Over 2.5 65.0% 76.9% 1.30 -15.5%

Over 3.5 43.5% 57.8% 1.73 -24.8%

BTTS 61.3% 75.2% 1.33 -18.5%

Home O1.5 65.1% 71.9% 1.39 -9.5%

Away O1.5 37.3% 44.8% 2.23 -16.8%

League track record ↗

Based on 32 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 63%

O2.5 69%

BTTS 56%

Score Hit 25%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 59%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-1

xG (home)2.4 xG (away)1.2 BTTS prob61.3%

H 53% / xG 2.4-1.2 / O2.5 65% / BTTS 61%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 7.9%

#2 2–1✓ 9.4%

#3 1–2 4.8%

#4 2–0 7.7%

#5 3–1 7.5%

Expected goals MODEL xG

FCI Levadia II2.4

FC Tallinn1.2

COMBINED 3.6 xG → O2.5 PROB 65.0% · O3.5 PROB 43.5%

Form & verdict PPG

FCI LEVADIA II · PPG 1.46

FC TALLINN · PPG 0.75

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

52%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +1.17 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

FCI Levadia II (H) 53.3%

ODDS 1.64 · IMPLIED 61.0% EV -12.6%

Draw 22.1%

ODDS 4.10 · IMPLIED 24.4% EV -5.6%

FC Tallinn (A) 24.7%

ODDS 3.75 · IMPLIED 26.7% EV -4.4%

Match Preview & Prediction

FCI Levadia II face FC Tallinn in Estonia - Esiliiga A on Sunday, August 23, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives FCI Levadia II a 53% chance, the draw 22% and FC Tallinn 25%, so FCI Levadia II are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.4 for FCI Levadia II and 1.2 for FC Tallinn (3.6 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 65% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 61% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, FCI Levadia II are averaging 1.46 points per game versus 0.75 for FC Tallinn. This match finished 2-1.

FCI Levadia II vs FC Tallinn Prediction— Estonia - Esiliiga A

Match Preview & Prediction

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