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Viimsi vs FC Tallinn Prediction— Estonia - Esiliiga A

Matchday 27 ·Thursday, September 3, 2026, 16:00

Viimsi

PPG 1.82 · HOME

LAST 5

WWLWW

UPCOMING

FC Tallinn

PPG 0.69 · AWAY

LAST 5

DLDLL

// Model verdict

Home Over 1.5

xG gap +2.18 for Home, form 1.82 vs 0.69 - Strong consensus

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-01.9%0-11.7%0-20.8%0-30.2%0-4+0.1%1 1-05.9%1-15.2%1-22.3%1-30.7%1-4+0.2%2 2-09.0%2-18.0%2-23.6%2-31.1%2-4+0.3%3 3-09.2%3-18.2%3-23.7%3-31.1%3-4+0.3%4+ 4+-015.1%4+-113.4%4+-26.0%4+-31.8%4+-4+0.5%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 70.4% 80.6% 1.24 -12.7%

Draw 15.9% 19.2% 5.20 -10.4%

Away win 13.7% 14.3% 7.00 -2.5%

Over 2.5 68.4% 81.3% 1.23 -15.9%

Over 3.5 47.7% 59.9% 1.67 -20.3%

BTTS 55.9% 69.0% 1.45 -18.9%

Home O1.5 77.9% — — —

Away O1.5 25.7% — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 32 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 63%

O2.5 69%

BTTS 56%

Score Hit 25%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 73%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)3.1 xG (away)0.9 BTTS prob55.9%

H 70% / xG 3.1-0.9 / O2.5 68% / BTTS 56%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 3–0 9.2%

#2 2–0 9.0%

#3 3–1 8.2%

#4 2–1 8.0%

#5 1–1 5.2%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Viimsi3.1

FC Tallinn0.9

COMBINED 4.0 xG → O2.5 PROB 68.4% · O3.5 PROB 47.7%

Form & verdict PPG

VIIMSI · PPG 1.82

FC TALLINN · PPG 0.69

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Strong home form | No clear value

66%

STRONG_HOME

xG gap +2.18 for Home, form 1.82 vs 0.69 - Strong consensus

Win probability 1X2

Viimsi (H) 70.4%

ODDS 1.24 · IMPLIED 80.6% EV -12.7%

Draw 15.9%

ODDS 5.20 · IMPLIED 19.2% EV -10.4%

FC Tallinn (A) 13.7%

ODDS 7.00 · IMPLIED 14.3% EV -2.5%

Match Preview & Prediction

Viimsi face FC Tallinn in Estonia - Esiliiga A on Thursday, September 3, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Viimsi a 70% chance, the draw 16% and FC Tallinn 14%, so Viimsi are favoured to win. Expected goals are 3.1 for Viimsi and 0.9 for FC Tallinn (4.0 total). The most likely scoreline is 3-0. There is a 68% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 56% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Viimsi are averaging 1.82 points per game versus 0.69 for FC Tallinn. The best value bet our model finds is TT_HomeO25, with an expected value of +1.2%.

Viimsi vs FC Tallinn Prediction— Estonia - Esiliiga A

Match Preview & Prediction

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