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Stabæk II vs Staal Jørpeland Prediction— Norway - 3. Division - Girone 4

Matchday 17 ·Sunday, August 30, 2026, 12:00

Stabæk II

PPG 1.62 · HOME

LAST 5

DDWLW

2 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O2.5

Staal Jørpeland

PPG 1.57 · AWAY

LAST 5

LLWLL

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 5.1 puts the goal expectation well above the line.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-00.6%0-11.2%0-21.2%0-30.8%0-4+0.7%1 1-01.8%1-13.7%1-23.8%1-32.6%1-4+2.1%2 2-02.8%2-15.7%2-25.9%2-34.0%2-4+3.3%3 3-02.9%3-15.9%3-26.1%3-34.1%3-4+3.4%4+ 4+-04.8%4+-19.9%4+-210.1%4+-36.9%4+-4+5.7%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 53.9% — — —

Draw 17.4% — — —

Away win 28.7% — — —

Over 2.5 77.7% — — —

Over 3.5 56.5% — — —

BTTS 69.6% — — —

Home O1.5 77.3% — — —

Away O1.5 56.9% — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 47 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 55%

O2.5 77%

BTTS 68%

Score Hit 38%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–2 5.9%

#2 3–2 6.1%

#3 3–1 5.9%

#4 2–1✓ 5.7%

#5 2–3 4.0%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Stabæk II3.1

Staal Jørpeland2.0

COMBINED 5.1 xG → O2.5 PROB 77.7% · O3.5 PROB 56.5%

Form & verdict PPG

STABÆK II · PPG 1.62

STAAL JØRPELAND · PPG 1.57

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

52%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +1.05 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Stabæk II (H) 53.9%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 17.4%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Staal Jørpeland (A) 28.7%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Stabæk II face Staal Jørpeland in Norway - 3. Division - Girone 4 on Sunday, August 30, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Stabæk II a 54% chance, the draw 17% and Staal Jørpeland 29%, so Stabæk II are favoured to win. Expected goals are 3.1 for Stabæk II and 2.0 for Staal Jørpeland (5.1 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-2. There is a 78% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 70% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Stabæk II are averaging 1.62 points per game versus 1.57 for Staal Jørpeland. This match finished 2-1.

Stabæk II vs Staal Jørpeland Prediction— Norway - 3. Division - Girone 4

Match Preview & Prediction

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