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Brommapojkarna W vs Piteå W Prediction— Sweden - Damallsvenskan

Matchday 16 ·Sunday, August 30, 2026, 12:00

Brommapojkarna W

PPG 1.29 · HOME

LAST 5

WLLDD

1 – 1

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · O2.5

Piteå W

PPG 1.14 · AWAY

LAST 5

DLLWD

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.1 puts the goal expectation above the line. Model probability 62.3% vs bookmaker-implied 58.8% — a real, if thin, edge.

+5.9% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-04.6%0-16.6%0-24.8%0-32.3%0-4+1.1%1 1-07.5%1-110.8%1-27.8%1-33.8%1-4+1.9%2 2-06.1%2-18.9%2-26.4%2-33.1%2-4+1.5%3 3-03.4%3-14.9%3-23.5%3-31.7%3-4+0.8%4+ 4+-02.0%4+-12.9%4+-22.1%4+-31.0%4+-4+0.5%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 42.5% 37.0% 2.70 +14.8%

Draw 22.9% 32.3% 3.10 -17.4%

Away win 34.6% 44.4% 2.25 -22.1%

Over 2.5 62.3% 58.8% 1.70 +5.9%

Over 3.5 39.3% 38.2% 2.62 +3.0%

BTTS 62.9% 66.7% 1.50 -5.7%

Home O1.5 48.9% 44.4% 2.25 +10.0%

Away O1.5 40.9% 50.0% 2.00 -18.2%

League track record ↗

Based on 63 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 52%

O2.5 71%

BTTS 49%

Score Hit 40%

ROI -18.7%

Bet Hit 50%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 51%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-1

xG (home)1.6 xG (away)1.4 BTTS prob62.9%

H 42% / xG 1.6-1.4 / O2.5 62% / BTTS 63%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1✓ 10.8%

#2 2–1 8.9%

#3 1–2 7.8%

#4 2–0 6.1%

#5 1–0 7.5%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Brommapojkarna W1.6

Piteå W1.4

COMBINED 3.1 xG → O2.5 PROB 62.3% · O3.5 PROB 39.3%

Form & verdict PPG

BROMMAPOJKARNA W · PPG 1.29

PITEÅ W · PPG 1.14

✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value

60%

BALANCED

xG gap +0.19 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Brommapojkarna W (H) 42.5%

ODDS 2.70 · IMPLIED 37.0% EV +14.8%

Draw 22.9%

ODDS 3.10 · IMPLIED 32.3% EV -17.4%

Piteå W (A) 34.6%

ODDS 2.25 · IMPLIED 44.4% EV -22.1%

Match Preview & Prediction

Brommapojkarna W face Piteå W in Sweden - Damallsvenskan on Sunday, August 30, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Brommapojkarna W a 43% chance, the draw 23% and Piteå W 35%, so Brommapojkarna W are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.6 for Brommapojkarna W and 1.4 for Piteå W (3.1 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 62% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 63% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Brommapojkarna W are averaging 1.29 points per game versus 1.14 for Piteå W. The best value bet our model finds is H/BTTS, with an expected value of +16.8%. This match finished 1-1.

Brommapojkarna W vs Piteå W Prediction— Sweden - Damallsvenskan

Match Preview & Prediction

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