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Al Ahli vs Al Faysali Prediction— Jordan - League

Regular Season - 25 ·Friday, April 24, 2026, 16:30

Al Ahli

PPG 0.27 · HOME

2 – 2

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · AWAY

Al Faysali

PPG 2.00 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Away

Model probability 75.5% vs bookmaker-implied 78.1%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-06.9%0-114.9%0-216.1%0-311.6%0-4+10.3%1 1-03.6%1-17.7%1-28.3%1-36.0%1-4+5.3%2 2-00.9%2-12.0%2-22.1%2-31.5%2-4+1.4%3 3-00.2%3-10.3%3-20.4%3-30.3%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-00.0%4+-10.0%4+-20.1%4+-30.0%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 7.5% 9.4% 10.60 -20.5%

Draw 17.0% 23.1% 4.33 -26.4%

Away win 75.5% 78.1% 1.28 -3.4%

Over 2.5 50.0% 55.6% 1.80 -10.0%

Over 3.5 28.1% 33.3% 3.00 -15.7%

BTTS 35.7% 45.5% 2.20 -21.5%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 20 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 65%

O2.5 55%

BTTS 70%

Score Hit 60%

ROI 34.6%

Bet Hit 81%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

0 – 3 60%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-2

xG (home)0.5 xG (away)2.2 BTTS prob35.7%

A 76% / xG 0.5-2.2 / O2.5 50% / NoBTTS 36%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–2 16.1%

#2 0–1 14.9%

#3 0–3 11.6%

#4 1–2 8.3%

#5 1–1 7.7%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Al Ahli0.5

Al Faysali2.2

COMBINED 2.7 xG → O2.5 PROB 50.0% · O3.5 PROB 28.1%

Form & verdict PPG

AL AHLI · PPG 0.27

AL FAYSALI · PPG 2.00

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Away team showing momentum | No clear value

63%

UPSET_VALUE

Away momentum: EXCELLENT form (2.00) vs Home POOR (0.27)

Win probability 1X2

Al Ahli (H) 7.5%

ODDS 10.60 · IMPLIED 9.4% EV -20.5%

Draw 17.0%

ODDS 4.33 · IMPLIED 23.1% EV -26.4%

Al Faysali (A) 75.5%

ODDS 1.28 · IMPLIED 78.1% EV -3.4%

Match Preview & Prediction

Al Ahli face Al Faysali in Jordan - League on Friday, April 24, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Al Ahli a 8% chance, the draw 17% and Al Faysali 76%, so Al Faysali are favoured to win. Expected goals are 0.5 for Al Ahli and 2.2 for Al Faysali (2.7 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-2. There is a 50% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 36% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Al Ahli are averaging 0.27 points per game versus 2.00 for Al Faysali. This match finished 2-2.

Al Ahli vs Al Faysali Prediction— Jordan - League

Match Preview & Prediction

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