Today / USA - MLS Next Pro / Columbus Crew II vs Chicago Fire II

Columbus Crew II vs Chicago Fire II Prediction— USA - MLS Next Pro

Group Stage ·Sunday, August 30, 2026, 17:00

Columbus Crew II

PPG 2.36 · HOME

LAST 5

LLWLW

4 – 0

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O2.5

Chicago Fire II

PPG 0.83 · AWAY

LAST 5

LWLWL

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.5 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 64.6% vs bookmaker-implied 71.4%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-02.9%0-14.0%0-22.8%0-31.3%0-4+0.6%1 1-06.3%1-18.7%1-26.0%1-32.8%1-4+1.3%2 2-06.8%2-19.3%2-26.5%2-33.0%2-4+1.4%3 3-04.8%3-16.7%3-24.6%3-32.1%3-4+1.0%4+ 4+-04.3%4+-16.0%4+-24.1%4+-31.9%4+-4+0.9%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 49.9% 40.0% 2.50 +24.8%

Draw 21.5% 29.4% 3.40 -16.1%

Away win 28.5% 44.4% 2.25 -21.5%

Over 2.5 64.6% 71.4% 1.40 -9.6%

Over 3.5 43.2% 55.2% 1.81 -21.8%

BTTS 63.1% 76.9% 1.30 -18.0%

Home O1.5 62.1% 58.1% 1.72 +6.8%

Away O1.5 40.9% 61.3% 1.63 -33.3%

League track record ↗

Based on 79 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 66%

O2.5 77%

BTTS 57%

Score Hit 24%

ROI 9.8%

Bet Hit 67%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 57%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 4-0

xG (home)2.2 xG (away)1.4 BTTS prob63.1%

H 50% / xG 2.2-1.4 / O2.5 65% / BTTS 63%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 8.7%

#2 2–1 9.3%

#3 1–2 6.0%

#4 2–0 6.8%

#5 3–1 6.7%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Columbus Crew II2.2

Chicago Fire II1.4

COMBINED 3.5 xG → O2.5 PROB 64.6% · O3.5 PROB 43.2%

Form & verdict PPG

COLUMBUS CREW II · PPG 2.36

CHICAGO FIRE II · PPG 0.83

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.77 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Columbus Crew II (H) 49.9%

ODDS 2.50 · IMPLIED 40.0% EV +24.8%

Draw 21.5%

ODDS 3.40 · IMPLIED 29.4% EV -16.1%

Chicago Fire II (A) 28.5%

ODDS 2.25 · IMPLIED 44.4% EV -21.5%

Match Preview & Prediction

Columbus Crew II face Chicago Fire II in USA - MLS Next Pro on Sunday, August 30, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Columbus Crew II a 50% chance, the draw 22% and Chicago Fire II 28%, so Columbus Crew II are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.2 for Columbus Crew II and 1.4 for Chicago Fire II (3.5 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 65% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 63% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Columbus Crew II are averaging 2.36 points per game versus 0.83 for Chicago Fire II. The best value bet our model finds is H/BTTS, with an expected value of +29.9%. This match finished 4-0.

Columbus Crew II vs Chicago Fire II Prediction— USA - MLS Next Pro

Match Preview & Prediction

More USA - MLS Next Pro Predictions