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Dusseldorf vs Dynamo Dresden Prediction— Germany - 2. Bundesliga

Matchday 31 ·Friday, April 24, 2026, 16:30

Dusseldorf

PPG 1.20 · HOME

LAST 5

LWLWL

3 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · BTTS

Dynamo Dresden

PPG 1.13 · AWAY

LAST 5

WLWLW

// Model verdict

BTTS 62% chance

Model probability 56.6% vs bookmaker-implied 64.5%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-05.8%0-19.4%0-27.7%0-34.2%0-4+2.4%1 1-07.1%1-111.5%1-29.4%1-35.1%1-4+3.0%2 2-04.3%2-17.0%2-25.7%2-33.1%2-4+1.8%3 3-01.8%3-12.9%3-22.3%3-31.3%3-4+0.7%4+ 4+-00.7%4+-11.1%4+-20.9%4+-30.5%4+-4+0.3%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 28.6% 43.5% 2.30 -34.2%

Draw 24.5% 28.2% 3.55 -13.0%

Away win 46.9% 35.1% 2.85 +33.7%

Over 2.5 54.2% 59.9% 1.67 -9.5%

Over 3.5 31.9% 37.0% 2.70 -13.9%

BTTS 56.6% 64.5% 1.55 -12.3%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 52 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 40%

O2.5 58%

BTTS 60%

Score Hit 44%

ROI -10.2%

Bet Hit 55%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 2 38%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 3-1

xG (home)1.2 xG (away)1.6 BTTS prob56.6%

A 47% / xG 1.2-1.6 / O2.5 54% / BTTS 57%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.5%

#2 0–1 9.4%

#3 1–2 9.4%

#4 0–2 7.7%

#5 1–0 7.1%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Dusseldorf1.2

Dynamo Dresden1.6

COMBINED 2.8 xG → O2.5 PROB 54.2% · O3.5 PROB 31.9%

Form & verdict PPG

DUSSELDORF · PPG 1.20

DYNAMO DRESDEN · PPG 1.13

✓ INTERESTING - Balanced match with high-value opportunity

Chance this pick lands

62%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home AVERAGE (1.20), Away AVERAGE (1.13)

Win probability 1X2

Dusseldorf (H) 28.6%

ODDS 2.30 · IMPLIED 43.5% EV -34.2%

Draw 24.5%

ODDS 3.55 · IMPLIED 28.2% EV -13.0%

Dynamo Dresden (A) 46.9%

ODDS 2.85 · IMPLIED 35.1% EV +33.7%

Match Preview & Prediction

Dusseldorf face Dynamo Dresden in Germany - 2. Bundesliga on Friday, April 24, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Dusseldorf a 29% chance, the draw 25% and Dynamo Dresden 47%, so Dynamo Dresden are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.2 for Dusseldorf and 1.6 for Dynamo Dresden (2.8 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 54% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 57% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Dusseldorf are averaging 1.20 points per game versus 1.13 for Dynamo Dresden. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +33.7%. This match finished 3-1.

Dusseldorf vs Dynamo Dresden Prediction— Germany - 2. Bundesliga

Match Preview & Prediction

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